基于GeoDetector模型的皖南国际文化旅游示范区土地利用变化及冲突识别研究
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TU98,F301.24

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国家自然科学青年基金项目“基于结构-生态功能耦合关系的城镇绿色空间构建研究:以合肥市为例” (41301650)


Land use change and conflict identification in South Anhui International Cultural Tourism Demonstration Zone using GeoDetector model
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    [目的] 识别皖南国际文化旅游示范区土地利用空间冲突格局,探究其与土地利用变化的关联机制,为区域协调可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法] 基于景观格局指数构建冲突测度模型,定量分析2000—2023年土地利用变化特征、土地利用冲突与土地利用强度时空分异规律,结合地理探测器探究影响机制。[结果] ①2000—2023年,皖南国际文化旅游示范区土地利用呈现耕地、林地缩减,建设用地扩张趋势,转移热点集中于北部沿江平原及南部山间盆地,林地通过双向转换维持生态基底功能。②研究期内冲突水平呈“北高南低”格局且整体趋缓。土地利用强度同步下降,形成“山区低强度条带-平原高强度节点”分异格局。③区域内土地利用冲突与土地利用强度空间协同性显著增强,全局Moran’sI指数持续上升,高值集聚区与建设用地扩张热点重叠。④坡度成为制约冲突格局的主要自然环境因素。土地利用强度与GDP之间的相互作用水平与土地利用强度与自然环境因子之间的相互作用水平相当,揭示了经济发展意图突破自然约束的趋势。56.6%的耕地被转为建设用地,证实了这种双重驱动效应。[结论] 皖南国际文化旅游示范区土地利用冲突水平下降但空间分异加剧,受自然和经济因素的双重驱动。亟需通过国土空间用途管制严控北部平原开发,统筹协调全区域生态保护与集约利用,推动皖南国际文化旅游示范区高质量发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] This study aims to identify the spatial conflict patterns of land use within the Southern Anhui International Cultural Tourism Demonstration Zone and to investigate their correlation with land use change, in order to provide a scientific basis for regional coordinated and sustainable development. [Methods] A land use conflict measurement model based on landscape pattern indices was constructed, and quantitative analyses to characterize land use change, land use conflict, and land use intensity from 2000 to 2023 were conducted combining the geographic detector method to examine the driving mechanisms. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2023, land use within the zone showed a trend of cultivated land and forest land decreasing, while construction land expanded. Land conversion hotspots concentrated in the northern riverside plains and southern intermountain basins. Forest land maintained its ecological substrate function through bidirectional conversions. ② The level of land use conflict exhibited a spatial pattern of higher values in the north and lower values in the south, but the overall trend decelerated. Land use intensity decreased at the same time, resulting in a differentiated pattern characterized by low-intensity strips in mountainous areas and high-intensity nodes in plains. ③ Spatial synergy between land use conflict and land use intensity significantly strengthened during the study period. The overall Moran’s I index increased continuously, and high-value agglomeration areas overlapped with hotspots of construction land expansion. ④ Slope emerged as the dominant natural environmental factor constraining the conflict pattern. The interaction level between land use intensity and GDP was comparable to that between land use intensity and natural environmental factors, which revealed a trend where economic development intentions challenge natural constraints. This dual-driver effect was supported by the finding that 56.6% of lost cultivated land was converted for urban construction. [Conclusion] While the overall level of land use conflict decreased within the Southern Anhui International Cultural Tourism Demonstration Zone, spatial differentiation intensified because of both natural and economic factors. Strict control of development in the northern plains through territorial spatial use regulation remains necessary. At the same time, coordination of ecological protection and intensive land use across the entire region is required to drive high-quality development of the International Cultural Tourism Demonstration Zone.

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杨宗霖,周振宏,高超群.基于GeoDetector模型的皖南国际文化旅游示范区土地利用变化及冲突识别研究[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(5):409-420

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-24
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-07
  • 出版日期: 2025-10-18