甘肃省耕地开发强度的时空分异及驱动因素
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F301.21

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国家自然科学基金项目“基于同位素示踪的陇东黄土丘陵区梯田果粮复合系统水分利用机制研究”(42361017); 甘肃省高校创新项目“基于农户视角的梯田非粮化行为决策机制研究”(2024B-075); 甘肃省高校研究生“创新之星”项目“基于农户视角的梯田非粮化行为决策机制研究”(2025CXZX-779)


Spatiotemporal differentiation and driving factors of cultivated land development intensity in Gansu Province
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    摘要:

    [目的] 探究甘肃省耕地资源开发现状及其驱动因素,为制定精准有效的耕地保护政策提供科学依据,促进耕地绿色可持续发展。[方法] 以甘肃省14个地州市为研究单元,量化耕地开发强度,采用泰尔指数、标准差椭圆及灰色关联分析等方法,揭示2004—2023年甘肃省耕地开发强度的时空格局演变特征及影响因素。[结果] ①2004—2023年,甘肃省耕地开发强度呈波动上升趋势,空间分布呈现“东高西低,南高北低”的显著异质性特征,高强度区集中于黄河流域中东部,低强度区分布于西南部与西部。②耕地开发广度的空间分异呈“东高西低,南高北低”格局且持续衰减。耕地开发深度高值区由北向南迁移且低值区范围逐渐缩小。开发频度呈“中部高,四周低”特征且市州间差异不断增大。③甘肃省耕地开发强度形成较稳定的空间集聚特征,重心整体朝西北方向迁移,标准差椭圆面积从135 816.83 km2增至144 192.68 km2,空间离散程度增大。④甘肃省耕地开发强度总泰尔系数在0.218 0~0.168 0间小幅波动。其中组间差异贡献率维持在59.83%~70.56%,主导着区域总差异,河西走廊对组间差异的贡献率达45.02%~58.50%,是耕地开发强度差异变化的主要驱动区域。⑤耕地开发强度分异并非单一因素决定,而是多因子(自然环境因素>社会经济因素)共同驱动结果,其中自然环境因素对开发强度、广度与深度起决定性作用,社会经济因素则主导开发频度。[结论] 甘肃省耕地开发强度变化是一个以自然环境因素为主导、社会经济因素为辅助的动态过程,具有明显的空间异质性和集聚性,在研究期内呈波动上升趋势。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The current cultivated land status and driving factors of cultivated land development in the Gansu Province were investigated to provide scientific support for formulating targeted policies promoting cultivated land protection and sustainable agricultural development. [Methods] Using 14 prefecture-level cities in Gansu Province as research units, this study quantified the intensity of cultivated land development and employed methods including the Theil Index, standard deviational ellipse, and gray correlation analysis to reveal spatiotemporal pattern evolution characteristics and influencing factors of cultivated land development intensity in Gansu Province from 2004 to 2023. [Results] ① The intensity of cultivated land development in Gansu Province had fluctuated but increased overall. Spatial distribution exhibited significant heterogeneity, presenting the pattern ‘higher in the east, lower in the west; higher in the south, lower in the north.’ High-intensity areas were concentrated in the middle and eastern parts of the Yellow River basin, whereas low-intensity areas were distributed in the southwestern and western regions. ② The spatial differentiation of cultivated land development breadth in Gansu Province showed a pattern of ‘higher in the east, lower in the west; higher in the south, lower in the north,’ with a continuous decline over time. Development depth followed a north-south transition of high-value areas with narrowing low-value zones. The development frequency presented a ‘central-high-peripheral-low’ pattern with increasing inter-city disparities. ③ The intensity of cultivated land development in Gansu Province had formed relatively stable spatial agglomeration characteristics. The center of gravity had shifted toward northwest as a whole, and the area of the standard deviational ellipse had increased from 135, 816.83 km² to 144, 192.68 km², indicating increased spatial dispersion. ④ The total Theil index of cultivated land development fluctuated slightly between 0.2180 and 0.1680, with inter-group differences (59.83%—70.56%) dominating regional variations. The Hexi Corridor contributed 45.02%—58.50% to intergroup differences, serving as the primary driver of variations in intensity in Gansu Province. ⑤ Differentiation in cultivated land development intensity in Gansu Province was not determined by a single factor, however, was jointly driven by multiple factors, including natural environmental and socioeconomic factors. Natural environmental factors played a decisive role in development intensity, breadth, and depth, whereas socioeconomic factors played a decisive role in frequency. [Conclusion] The change in cultivated land development intensity in Gansu Province is a dynamic process dominated by natural environmental factors and assisted by socioeconomic factors. It is characterized by obvious spatial heterogeneity and agglomeration, with a fluctuating upward trend over the examined years.

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后莉,黄鑫,裴婷婷,陈英,谢保鹏,席瑞云.甘肃省耕地开发强度的时空分异及驱动因素[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(5):433-444

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-22
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-07
  • 出版日期: 2025-10-18