疏勒河流域水沙变化特征及其归因分析
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TV141.3

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国家自然科学基金项目“梯级筑坝对高寒内陆河流重金属迁移转化机制研究”(52169015);甘肃省重大专项“高原夏菜废弃物规模化处置与循环利用关键技术研发”(24ZDNA004);甘肃省2025年水利科研与技术推广项目(24GSLK030;25GSLK105)


Characteristics and attribution analysis of runoff-sediment variations in Shule River basin
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    [目的] 分析疏勒河流域水沙变化特征及其驱动因素,为该流域水资源有效利用和生态保护提供理论依据。[方法] 收集疏勒河干流(昌马堡、潘家庄)及党河(党城湾)3处代表性水文站从建站至2023年近70 a的实测径流、输沙和降水资料及邻近的酒泉、玉门和肃北3个气象站的气象数据,运用数理统计、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、贝叶斯检验等方法,分析疏勒河流域水沙关系变化特征,并结合回归分析和累积量斜率变化率法量化气候变化和人类活动对径流和输沙变化的影响。[结果] 疏勒河流域径流量和输沙量在年内及年际尺度上分配不均,具有明显的时空变异性,3个水文站的径流量均呈显著增加趋势,昌马堡水文站的输沙量呈显著上升趋势,而潘家庄水文站和党城湾水文站的输沙量变化趋势则不显著。[结论] 气候变化是影响疏勒河干流上游和支流党河上游径流和输沙变化的主要原因,其中疏勒河干流上游昌马堡站径流和输沙过程受降水、气温和人类活动的共同作用驱动,降水变化是影响党河上游党城湾站径流和输沙变化的主导因素;人类活动干扰是影响疏勒河干流中游潘家庄站径流和输沙的主导因素,且随着人类活动的不断增强而持续扩大。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The characteristics and driving factors of runoff-sediment variations in the Shule River basin were analyzed in order to provide a theoretical basis for the efficient utilization of water resources and ecological conservation in the basin. [Methods] Measured runoff, sediment transport, and precipitation data spanning from the time of built station to nearly 70 years by 2023 were collected from three representative hydrological stations-Changmabao and Panjiazhuang on the Shule River main stream, and Dangchengwan on the Dang River-together with meteorological data from three nearby meteorological stations (Jiuquan, Yumen, and Subei). Methods such as mathematical statistics, the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, and Bayesian analysis were applied to analyze the variation characteristics of the runoff-sediment relationship in the Shule River basin. In addition, regression analysis and the cumulative slope change rate method were used to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on variations in runoff and sediment transport. [Results] Runoff and sediment transport in the Shule River basin were unevenly distributed at both intra-annual and interannual scales, exhibiting pronounced spatiotemporal variability. Runoff at all three hydrological stations showed a significant increasing trend. Sediment transport at Changmabao station increased significantly, while no significant trends were observed at Panjiazhuang and Dangchengwan stations. [Conclusion] Climate change is the primary factor influencing the variations in runoff and sediment transport in the upper reaches of the Shule River main stream and the upper reaches of its tributary, the Dang River. Specifically, the runoff and sediment transport processes at the Changmabao station in the upper reaches of the Shule River main stream are driven by the combined effects of precipitation, temperature, and human activities. Precipitation variation is the dominant factor affecting the variations in runoff and sediment transport at the Dangchengwan station in the upper reaches of the Dang River. Human activities are the main driving force influencing runoff and sediment transport at the Panjiazhuang station in the middle reaches of the Shule River main stream, and their influence continues to increase with the intensification of human activities.

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王昱,任伟龙,牛晓宇,刘开清,张宝泉,张晓龙,胡飞燕,尉小珍.疏勒河流域水沙变化特征及其归因分析[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(1):202-213

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-01
  • 出版日期: 2026-02-15