榆林地区农田开发与粮食增产回归分析及潜力研究
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Regression Analysis and Potentials of Farmland Development and Crop Yield of Yulin Prefecture
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    摘要:

    陕西榆林地区12个县,均为黄河流域水土流失重点县和贫困县,建国以来修水地、坝地、梯田37.8hm2 ,占粮田总面积60%。该文采用回归分析方法,求出大田面积与大田作物单产的回归系数为43.9,即每修1万hm2“三田”的增产效益相当于粮田总面积每1hm2 增产43.9kg 。35a来“ 三田” 总增产为726.6万t ,其相关系数0.9955,为极显著正相关。1996年农民人均占有粮444kg,比1949年人均150.5kg增加1.95倍。榆林北部风沙区水地和粮食产量的开发潜力很大,可以新开辟井灌水地13.4 万hm2,通过电脑预测,至2010 年全地区粮食总产可达187万t ,人均占粮为521kg,具有很大的可持续性发展潜力。

    Abstract:

    All the 12 counties in Yulin prefecture of Shaanxi province are poor and severely eroded in the Yellow river basin .Since the new China founded,there has been 378000 ha of irrigated land,soil-saving dam land and terraced land(called“three lands”for short)constructed,which consists of 60% of the total farmland .A regression coefficient of 43.9 of field cropyield to“three lands” area has been drawn by regression analysis,that means the yield of the total farmland increased by 43.9 kg/ha with an increment of each 10000 ha of“three lands”.For the 35 years,“three lands” increased by 906 500 ton of food , and the relevant coefficient is 0.9955, being doubly marked and positively interrelated .Percapita food of villagers was 444 kg in 1996,increased by 1.95 times comparing to that of 150.5 kg in 1949.The sandy area of northern Yulin holds a great potentialin developing irrigated land and food production,and 134000 ha of land can be opened up for well-irrigated farmland.It is predicted that the total food production can reach 1870000 ton,and there will be 521kg food percapita by 2010.

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林关石,孙保胜,梁文菊,袁彩莉.榆林地区农田开发与粮食增产回归分析及潜力研究[J].水土保持通报,1998,(3):30-33,46

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  • 收稿日期:1998-04-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-11-28
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