内蒙古“十-五”规划对水资源的影响评价
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国家自然科学资助项目(40461009;40535026)


Assessment on Effects of the Eleventh Five-year Plan of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on Water Resources
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    摘要:

    水资源是内蒙古自治区经济社会发展的刚性约束资源。从水资源供需平衡角度评价了内蒙古自治区"十-五"国民经济和社会发展规划的目标及方案是否在水资源供给能力之内。采用情景分析法和承压法评价了内蒙古"十-五"规划的水资源供需平衡以及未来对水资源的影响。结果表明,按照"十五"期间的节水力度(情景1),到2010年内蒙古需水总量为2.52×1010m3,按"十-五"规划的节水力度(情景2),则需水总量为2.06×1010m3,预计可供水量为2.29×1010m3。在情景1时水资源缺[1达2.36×109 m3,在情景2时,水资源盈余2.2×109m3。从总体来看,只要加大节水力度,内蒙古"十-五"规划目标完全在水资源的供给能力之内。但由于水资源区域分布差异大,中西部地区在情景2时仍然处于缺水状态,因此,中西部地区需要调整规划的农业灌溉面积和局部工业发展规模。

    Abstract:

    Water resources are the main limited factor in Inner Mongolia, and so a development plan should consider the balance of water demands and supplies firstly.Based on water resource carrying capacity, this paper attempts to analyze and assess the rationality and feasibility of the eleventh five-year plan of Inner Mongolia A utonomous Region.The methods of scenario analysis and pressu re assessment are applied.Resuits show that the amount of water demands is some 2.52 ×1010 m3 under Scenario 1(water saving situa tion as past five years) and 2.06 ×1010 m3 under Scenario 2(water saving situation as planning for future five years).The water supplies would reach 2.29 ×1010 m3 up to 2010 and t hus, the wa ter supplies should meet the demand under Scenario 2 in general.But there is a: remarkable regional gap of water resource distribu tion in Inner Monglia.Only 24% of availa ble water resources are distributed in the middle and western area and the water shortage occurs in this area even if under Scenario 2.So the area of irrigation land should be decreased in fragile desert and semi-desert region along inland rivers and the Yellow River, such as in the Alashan area.The indust rial planning also should be regulated in accordance with water carrying capacity.

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鲁春霞,于长水,于格,肖玉.内蒙古“十-五”规划对水资源的影响评价[J].水土保持通报,2007,(6):165-169

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  • 收稿日期:2007-06-29
  • 最后修改日期:2007-09-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-12-16
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