三峡库区大宁河流域径流泥沙的AnnAGNPS定量评价
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中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX22YW2422);中国科学院西部行动计划项目(KZCX22XB2207201);国家自然科学基金课题(40671120)


Evaluation of Runoff and Sediment from Daning River Watershed in Three Gorges Reservoir Region Based on AnnAGNPS Model City
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    摘要:

    选择位于三峡库区的大宁河流域为研究区,利用著名的农业非点源污染模型--AnnAGNPS对该流域的径流与泥沙进行了定量评价。首先基于流域土地利用、土壤、地形及气象数据等资料对模型参数化,在数字滤波法切割水文站总径流中的基流后,利用偏差、相关系数r-和Nash-Sutcliffe模拟系数(NS)等多个指标评价了模型对径流和泥沙量预测性能,校正期(1998-1999年)预测与实测的直接径流深偏差为-3. 71%,相关系数r-为0. 94,斜率k为1. 04,NS系数0. 94;验证期(-003--005年)预测与实测直接径流深偏差-6. 37%,相关系数r-为0. 93,斜率k为0. 93,NS系数0. 94;预测与实测的多年平均输沙量偏差为-16. 5%。最佳管理措施(BMPs)评价显示退耕还林方案削减了总输沙量和侵蚀量的-4. 5%,是一种水土流失较好的治理措施。研究证实了AnnAGNPS模型在该流域的适用性,显示了模型在流域径流与泥沙负荷估算及其评价中的应用潜力。

    Abstract:

    Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source model (AnnA GN PS),a continuous-simulation water-shed-scale model ,is widely used to evaluate non-point source pollution in agricultural watersheds in a number of countries. The Daning River watershed in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region was selected as a case stud-y. The model was parameterized based on landuse,soil,topographic data,and eight-year climatic data. Di- rect runoff was derived from the observed runoff using the baseflow filter method. Then indicators such as percent error (PE) , Nash2Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) , determination coefficient r2,and gradientk were used to evaluate the performance of AnnA GNPS. The calibration result for runoff is very satisfactory ( PE =-3.71%,r2=0.94,k=1.04,and NS=0.94).The validation result also matches well with the observed data,with PE=-6.37%,r2=0.93,k=0.93,and NS =0.94 for runoff and PE=-16.5% for sedi-ment yield. Alternative scenario simulations show that converting cultivated land into forest is promising BMPs (Best Management Practices) for sediment reduction. The results demonstrate that the model is suit-able for prediction and assessment of runoff and sediment from the watershed.

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花利忠,贺秀斌,颜昌宙,南宏伟,韦杰.三峡库区大宁河流域径流泥沙的AnnAGNPS定量评价[J].水土保持通报,2009,(6):148-152

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  • 收稿日期:2009-01-06
  • 最后修改日期:2009-05-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-11-26
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