基于压力-状态-响应模型的榆林市可持续发展评价及预测
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国家自然科学基金项目“多元化利用方式下的农村生活能源消费行为与区域模式研究”(41101555)


Sustainable Development of Yulin City and Its Evaluation and Forecast by Pressure-State-Response Model
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    摘要:

    选取国家能源重化工基地陕西省榆林市为研究区,应用"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)模型构建了榆林市可持续发展综合评价指标体系,运用基于熵值法的可持续发展模糊综合评价法对榆林市1996-2010年可持续发展状况进行了评估分析。利用系统协调度来衡量PSR系统协调性,并采用灰色系统预测模型GM(1,1)对榆林市未来10a的可持续发展状况进行了预测。结果显示:(1)1996-2010年榆林市可持续发展综合评价值从1996年的0.109 8增长至2010年的0.672 2,可持续发展水平在不断提高,但总体水平比较低下。(2)榆林市可持续发展系统协调度呈上升趋势,系统总体协调性较好。(3)基于现状响应的预测,2011-2020年榆林市可持续发展综合评价值持续上升,至2020年达到1.434 5,将进入可持续发展阶段。

    Abstract:

    A regional evaluation index system of sustainable development for Yulin City,the state base of energy and heavy chemical industry,was established using PSR model(pressure-state-responses),the sustainable development of Yulin City during the period of 1996-2010was analyzed and evaluated with the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,the PSR coordination character for Yulin City was valued with the system coordination index and the future sustainable development in 10years was forecasted using grey system budget model GM(1,1).The results indicated that:(1)Since 1996,the sustainable development of Yulin City had been improved remarkably with the comprehensive evaluation value of sustainable development increased from 0.109 8to 0.672 2though it was still low in 2010;(2)The sustainable development system was in a good condition with the coordination degree on the up trend;(3)During 2010-2020the comprehensive evaluation value of sustainable development would continue to increase and reach at 1.434 5in 2020 when entering into a stage of sustainable development.

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冯惠娟,杨海娟.基于压力-状态-响应模型的榆林市可持续发展评价及预测[J].水土保持通报,2013,(4):64-69

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2012-12-07
  • 最后修改日期:2013-01-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-11-11
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