基于突变级数法的徐州市近10年水环境承载力评价
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国家自然科学基金重点项目"农村发展中生态环境管理研究"(70833001)


Evaluation on Water Environment Carrying Capacity of Xuzhou City in Recent 10 Years Based on Catastrophe Progression Method
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    摘要:

    [目的] 研究徐州市近10 a水环境承载力状况,为完善区域水环境承载力研究体系提供理论支撑。[方法] 从水资源承载力和水污染承载力两方面选取指标,采用改进熵值法对指标进行重要性排序,建立基于突变级数法的区域水环境承载力评价模型。[结果] (1)研究区各目标年水资源承载力水平总体偏低,年际波动较大,其中2002,2006和2010年处于等级Ⅰ水平,即弱承载状态;(2)水污染承载力整体呈上升趋势,从2005年开始达到并保持在等级Ⅲ水平;(3)徐州市水环境承载力仅2005和2009年达到等级Ⅲ水平,为中承载状态,其余年份均在等级Ⅲ水平以下。[结论] 徐州市近10 a水环境承载力状况从2003年开始有所改善,但依然普遍较差。水资源承载力因其具有人为不可控的自然属性,成为影响徐州市水环境承载力的限制因素。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] This paper aimed at studying the water environment carrying capacity of Xuzhou City in recent ten years, in order to provide theoretical supports for improving the research systerm of regional water environment carrying capacity.[Methods] The index system was established from two aspects:water resources carrying capacity and water pollution bearing capacity. And the improved entropy method was used to reorder the indices. Then, the model of regional water environment carrying capacity based on the catastrophe progression method was built and applied to the evaluation.[Results] (1) The water resource carrying capacity was overall low in each year, and had large inter-yearly variation. Especially in the years of 2002, 2006 and 2010, the water resource carrying capacity was at level Ⅰ; (2) On the whole, the water pollution bearing capacity had climbed and had a sign of getting steady; (3) The water environment carrying capacity of Xuzhou City were at level Ⅲ only in 2005 and 2009, while the other years were below level Ⅲ.[Conclusion] Although the water environmental carrying capacity of Xuzhou City had shown some improvement since 2003, it was relatively poor. Due to the uncontrollable natural attributes, the water resources carrying capacity is the main factors that would limit the water environment carrying capacity of Xuzhou City.

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吴颖超,王震,曹磊,王新军,赵言文.基于突变级数法的徐州市近10年水环境承载力评价[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(2):231-235

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  • 收稿日期:2014-03-20
  • 最后修改日期:2014-04-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-04-05
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