[目的] 研究影响水资源系统承载力变化的关键因素,为贵阳市水资源的可持续利用及合理管理政策的制定提供决策依据. [方法] 以贵阳市为例,将水资源系统分为水资源、生态环境、社会经济3个子系统,选取评价指标,建立多层次模糊综合评价模型对该市水资源承载力进行评价. [结果] 整体上,2003—2013年贵阳市水资源承载力状况不断提高,可较好地支持贵阳市社会经济发展.其中水资源子系统指数处于波动缓慢下降状态,生态环境子系统指数呈持续上升趋势,社会经济子系统指数呈下降趋势. [结论] 水资源子系统对水资源承载能力的贡献率逐渐降低,生态环境质量的改善是水资源承载力提高的主要驱动因素,而社会经济子系统是水资源承载力提高的主要压力源.
[Objective] The objective of the research is to study the key factors that influence the water resource carrying capacity in Guiyang City of Guizhou Province in order to provide basis for the sustainable development of water resources and soci-economy in the city. [Methods] Taking Guiyang City as a case study, the water resources system was divided into three subsystems including water resource, ecological environment and soci-economic subsystems. Evaluation indices were selected and multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was established. [Results] The result showed that water resources carrying capacity improved continuously from 2003 to 2013, which contributed to the socio-economic development in Guiyang City. The evaluation index of water resource subsystem fluctuated, and decreased slightly during the study years. The evaluation index of ecological environment subsystem increased significantly, while the evaluation index of socio-economic subsystem decreased dramatically. [Conclusion] The contribution of water resources subsystems to water resources carrying capacity has decreased. The improvement of ecological environment is the main driver of the increasing water resources carrying capacity, while the socio-economic subsystem is the main obstruction of water resources carrying capacity.