[目的] 定量分析土地利用总体规划实施过程对生态环境的影响, 预防或减轻规划实施过程中产生的不良环境影响. [方法] 以河北省沧州市渤海新区为研究区,以土地利用规划数据和2009—2013年土地利用现状数据为基础,采用生态系统服务价值评估方法、敏感性指数、灰色预测模型,分析研究区2009—2013年土地利用及其生态系统服务价值的变化,预测2015和2020年生态系统服务价值,并与规划目标进行比较. [结果] (1) 2009—2013年,研究区建设用地增加量已经超过规划期建设用地的增加总量,生态系统服务价值减少了1.11×107元,说明规划实施过程中过于重视经济效益,而忽视了生态效益; (2) 预测结果显示,到2020年生态系统服务价值减少7.08×107元,规划实施过程中,研究区生态系统服务功能在逐渐减弱. [结论] 当地政府应高度重视规划实施过程中生态环境退化的问题,并采取积极有效的措施,促进经济建设与生态环境保护协调发展.
[Objective] The objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts of the comprehensive land use planning on the ecological environment in order to prevent and alleviate the adverse environmental impacts during the project implementation processes. [Methods] The Bohai new area in Cangzhou City of Hebei Provine was selected as the study area. Based on the land use planning data and the existed land use data from 2009 to 2013, the ecosystem service value assessment method was used, and the sensitivity index and grey prediction models were employed. The changes in land use and ecosystem service value were analyzed from 2009 to 2013 in the study area. The value of ecosystem service in the year of 2015 and 2020 was predicted, and compared with the planning data. [Results] (1) From 2009 to 2013, the area of the construction land has greatly exceeded the total area of the planned construction land, and the ecosystem service value decreased by 1.11×107 yuan. This indicated that economic benefits were overemphasized, whereas the ecological benefits were neglected during the project implementation processes. (2) The prediction results showed that the ecosystem service values were expected to be reduced by 7.08×107 in 2020 and the ecosystem service function in the study area were expected to be weakened. [Conclusion] The local government should pay more attention on the eco-environment degeneration issues during the project implementation processes, and take positive and effective measures to improve the relationship between economic development and eco-environment protection.