农牧交错带耕地数量变化对粮食产量影响的时空关联性——以内蒙古乌兰察布市为例
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国家自然基金项目“耕地动态与干暖化对北方农牧交错带生态系统干扰作用以及影响机理:以乌兰察布市为例”(41161015)


Spatio-temporal Relevance of Arable Land Dynamic Changes to Grain Yield in Transitional Area Between Pastoral and Agricultural Region——A Case Study in Ulanqab City in Inner Mongolia
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    摘要:

    [目的] 分析耕地变化和粮食生产的时空动态特征及其相互关联性,为研究区耕地集约利用水平的提高与粮食产量的增加提供科学依据。[方法] 利用遥感解译获取的土地利用变化数据和粮食产量等统计数据,采用地理学和经济学理论、技术与方法,分析区域耕地与粮食产量的时空动态格局,构建“粮耕弹性系数”反映农牧交错区耕地资源变化与粮食生产的互动关系,揭示耕地数量变化对粮食产量的影响机理。[结果] (1) 1990-2000年耕地扩张明显,研究区中部、北部增加而东部减少。粮食产量逐渐上升,四子王旗粮食产量对耕地面积具有高敏感度,其它地区粮食产量对耕地数量变化的敏感度较低。(2) 2000-2013年,耕地总量明显减少,耕地利用变化主要发生在研究区中部和南部,粮食产量出现先减少后增加的趋势,乌兰察布市东部和西部地区粮食综合生产能力明显提高,粮食产量对耕地数量变化的敏感度变低。[结论] 1990-2013年乌兰察布市耕地数量变化对乌兰察布市粮食产量的影响显著。全市粮食产量对耕地数量变化的敏感度有着明显的区域差异,且2000-2013年的敏感度相对1990-2000年而言较低。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] To analyze spatial dynamic characteristics and interrelationship between cultivated land changes and grain production in order to provide a scientific basis for improving the level of intensive utilization of cultivated land and increasing grain production.[Methods] Using land use change data obtained by remote sensing and the agricultural statistical data from local governments in 1990-2013, with the theory, technology and methods of geography and economics, we analyzed the spatial-temporal dynamic patterns of regional arable land and grain production, and developed a farmland-grain elasticity coefficient to depict the interrelationship between farmland and grain production and reveal the impact mechanism of arable land dynamic change on grain production.[Results] (1) The arable land in 1990-2000 was significantly expanded, which increased in the central and northern part in the study area while it decreased in eastern part. The grain production increased gradually. The grain production was very sensitive to the arable land changes in Siziwang Banner, and less sensitive to the arable land changes in other areas. (2) The total arable land was significantly decreased in 2000-2013, mainly occurred in central and southern area. The trend of grain production in the study area was increased after the first decrease. The food production capacity was significantly improved in the eastern and western area in the Ulanqab City and the sensitivity to arable land was low.[Conclusion] Cultivated land changes in 1990-2013 have significant effect on grain production of the Ulanqab City. The sensitivity of the grain production to the cultivated land changes has significant regional differences as well as in different periods, which was lower in 2000-2013 than that in 1990-2000.

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孙乌仁&#;图雅,苏根成,迟文峰.农牧交错带耕地数量变化对粮食产量影响的时空关联性——以内蒙古乌兰察布市为例[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(3):186-192

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  • 收稿日期:2015-10-20
  • 最后修改日期:2015-11-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-07-12
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