1961-2010年锡林郭勒盟气温和降水时空变化特征
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中国农业科学院科技创新工程“草原非生物灾害防灾减灾”(CAAS-ASTIP-IGR2015-04)


Temporal-spatial Changes of Temperature and Precipitation in Xilingol League from 1961 to 2010
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    [目的] 分析内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒盟气温和降水量时空变化规律,为草原区环境演化提供科学支撑,同时也对气温和降水的短期预警提供依据。[方法] 利用研究区境内15个气象站点1961-2010年的逐月平均气温和月降水资料,结合一元线性回归分析、趋势分析、MK突变检验以及Morlet小波分析方法,分析近50 a来锡林郭勒地区气温和降水时空变化特征及周期。[结果] 近50 a来锡林郭勒地区气温以0.44℃/10 a的速率呈显著上升趋势,其中冬季温度上升最明显;年均气温有较明显的突变特征,突变点出现在1991年,突变前后2个时段平均气温相差1.32℃;存在28,9和5 a的周期律,未来几年仍处于暖期。降水呈波动下降趋势,速率为3.9 mm/10 a,夏季降水下降最明显;年降水量没有明显的突变点,存在25和7 a的震荡周期,未来几年仍处于少雨阶段。[结论] 近50 a来锡林郭勒盟地区气候呈明显干旱化趋势。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] This paper analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of temperature and precipitation in Xilingol League of Inner Mongolia, in order to provide a scientific support for environmental evolution and early warning of temperature and precipitation change in this area.[Methods] We collected monthly mean air temperature and precipitation data of 15 meteorological site in Xilingol League from 1961 to 2010. The unitary linear recursive analysis, linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet methods were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of climate change.[Results] The annual mean temperature demonstrated a significant increasing trend during the past 50 years at a rate of 0.44℃/10 a. The increase of temperature in winter was the greatest with an increasing rate of 0.52℃/10 a. The annual mean temperature changed abruptly in 1991, and there was a 1.32℃ temperature difference before and after this abrupt change. There were significant cyclical changes at 28 a, 9 a and 5 a periods, and it is still in warm period in the next few years. Annual precipitation showed a downward trend from 1961 to 2010 at a rate of 3.9 mm/10 a, and it is most obvious in summer. There were significant cyclical changes at 25 and 7 years period with no obvious abrupt change point, and it is still in the stage of little rain in the next few years.[Conclusion] The climate of Xilingol League showed a trend of drought during the past 50 years.

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佟斯琴,刘桂香,武娜.1961-2010年锡林郭勒盟气温和降水时空变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(5):340-345,351

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  • 收稿日期:2016-01-04
  • 最后修改日期:2016-02-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-11-22
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