京津冀能源消费碳排放与水资源消耗双重分析
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国家自然科学基金项目“基于空间关联和产业代谢的长江经济带可持续发展评价与调控对策”(71603111);江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目(16KJB610007);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目


Dual-Analysis on Carbon Emissions of Energy Consumption and Water Resource Consumption of Jing-Jin-Ji Region
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    摘要:

    [目的] 探究京津冀区域能源消费碳排放和水资源消耗的影响因素和未来变化,为该区制定针对性政策提供科学支撑。[方法] 基于京津冀2002-2012年能源消耗碳排放的估算,构建了基于六大行业的能源碳排放和基于三次产业的水资源消耗因素分解模型,并设定情景分析模型对该区域2015和2020年的CO2排放和水资源消耗进行模拟和预测。[结果] (1)2002-2012年京津冀能源碳排放呈年均8.51%的增速,累积增长了226.26%,以工业能源碳排放为主,其次是交通运输业和生活消费,而水资源消耗变化趋势都较稳定;(2)因素分解结果显示人均财富的变动是京津冀区域CO2排放量和水资源消耗量增加的最大正向因素,能耗强度和水耗强度则为最大负向因素;(3)在设定的所有情景中,2015和2020年京津冀区域的CO2排放量分别相比2005年至少会增加553.6和819.2 Mt,水资源消耗量分别相比2012年至少增加3.36×109 m3和9.97×109m3。[结论] 京津冀区域的3大产业的水资源消耗量在研究时期内的变化趋势都较稳定,表明产业结构的调整和产业用水效率的提高将是京津冀区域水资源管理决策的重中之重。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The impacting factors of energy consumption's carbonemissions and water resource consumption were explored, and the change in the future of Jing-Jin-Ji region was analyzed to provide scientific support for making targeted policies.[Methods] Based on the estimation of carbonemissions from energy consumption in the Jing-Jin-Ji region from 2002 to 2012, this study established the factor decomposition models of carbonemissions from energy consumption and water resource consumption. It also set the scenarios analysis model to forecast carbonemissions from energy consumption and water resource consumption in 2020.[Results] (1) Carbonemissions from energy consumption of Jing-Jin-Ji region increased with an average annual rate of 8.5%, the accumulation rate was 226.26%. The main emissions was from industry sector, and the followings were transportation and residential life sectors. Water resource consumption was relatively steady in all three industries. (2) Change of per capita wealth was the most positive factor for both CO2 emissions and water resource consumption of Jing-Jin-Ji region. While energy intensity and water intensity were two of the most negative factors, and the followings were industrial structure, per capita water resource consumption, population and carbon emission coefficient. (3) Under all scenarios, CO2 emissions in 2015 and 2020 will increase 553.6 Mt and 819.2 Mt in comparison with the one in 2005, respectively. Water resource consumption will increase 3.36 and 9.97 billion m3in comparison with the one in 2012.[Conclusion] Water resources consumptions of three major industries in Jing-Jin-Ji region during the study period were relatively stable, which implied that the adjustment of industrial structure and improvement of industrial water use efficiency are the priority for regional water resources management of this region.

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檀菲菲,江象君.京津冀能源消费碳排放与水资源消耗双重分析[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(6):231-239,246

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  • 收稿日期:2015-12-31
  • 最后修改日期:2016-03-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-01-13
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