基于模式误差修正的安徽省沿江地区降水变化特征预估
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国家自然科学基金项目“流域尺度洪涝灾害风险评估方法研究:以巢湖流域为例”(41271516);安徽师范大学研究生科研创新项目(2016yks068);安徽师范大学研究生科研创新项目(2015cxsj163)


Prediction of Regional Precipitation Along Yangtze River in Anhui Province Based on Model Error Correction
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    摘要:

    [目的] 模拟未来降水的变化特征,为安徽省沿江地区的农业生产及防洪减灾等提供理论依据。 [方法] 基于RCP4.5温室气体排放情景,应用MRI-CGCM3模式误差修正数据模拟安徽省沿江地区1960—2065年的降水变化。[结果] 误差修正模式数据对安徽省沿江地区降水变化特征模拟性能较好。未来不同时间段降水差异较大,春夏降水多,秋冬降水少。2036—2065年四季和年均日降水量的增加幅度大于2006—2035年,秋季差异最大。就数据波动幅度而言,不同时段夏季降水波动均较大,春季均较小。2006—2035年秋冬波动较小,2036—2065年秋冬波动偏大。从区域降水变化特征来看,2006—2065年安徽省沿江地区日降水量呈现由北向南逐渐增加的条带性地理特征和春夏降水多,秋冬降水少季节特征。较于2006—2035,2036—2065年区域的降水地理变化特征会更加明显而且季节性变化速率增加,降水距平地理变化条带性趋势及方向因季节而异。[结论] 安徽省沿江地区未来降水波动幅度变大,降雨量增加。

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    [Objective] The objective of this paper is to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the future, in order to provide a theoretical basis for agricultural production and flood control and disaster mitigation in the region along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province. [Methods] Based on scenario of RCP4.5 greenhouse gas emissions, regional precipitation along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province during 1960—2065 was simulated using the MRI-CGCM3 model error correction data. [Results] The error correction model data can well simulate the variation characteristics of precipitation along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province. There were big differences in precipitation in different periods of the future, and more precipitation in spring and summer, less precipitation in autumn and winter. The increase of daily precipitation in the four seasons and the average annual precipitation of 2036—2065 was higher than that in 2006—2035, and the biggest difference in autumn. In terms of the data fluctuations, the precipitation fluctuations in different periods were larger in summer, smaller in the spring. The smaller fluctuations occur in autumn and winter of 2006—2035, and higher fluctuations in autumn and winter in 2036—2065. As for regional precipitation variation characteristics, the daily precipitation increases gradually from north to south with the seasonal characteristics of more precipitation in autumn and winter than that in spring and summer in Anhui Province along the Yangtze River in 2006—2065. Compared to 2006—2035, the geographical features of the regional precipitation change in 2036—2065 were more obvious and the seasonal variation rate increased. The geographical change strip trends and direction of precipitation anomaly varies by seasons. [Conclusion] The regional future precipitation increases but with higher variability along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province.

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康海迪,程先富.基于模式误差修正的安徽省沿江地区降水变化特征预估[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(1):188-195

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  • 收稿日期:2016-06-01
  • 最后修改日期:2016-07-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-03-23
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