安徽省1995-2013年粮食生产与耕地压力动态变化特征及驱动因素
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安徽省科技厅软科学课题“安徽省技术进步、产业结构调整对用水变化驱动效应时空差异及响应对策研究”(1607a0202061)


Change Characteristics and Driving Factors of Food Production and Cropland Pressure in Anhui Province During 1995-2013
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    摘要:

    [目的] 探索安徽省粮食安全与耕地压力动态变化及驱动因素,为管理层制定粮食安全政策提供决策参考。[方法] 运用耕地压力指数模型、C-D生产模型,采用偏最小二乘回归方法,对安徽省1995-2013年粮食生产与耕地压力的动态特征及驱动因素进行综合分析。[结果] (1)人口增长与耕地面积减少的矛盾突出。人口由1995年6000万,增至2013年6929万,呈线性增长态势,而耕地面积则由1995年4.29×106 hm2减少至2013年4.19×106 hm2,呈下降态势;(2)研究时序内,耕地压力指数均值为0.345,承载力指数均值为0.747,耕地资源禀赋尚处盈余状态,为全国商品粮盈余地区,平均盈余率达25.32%;(3)粮食作物播种面积、农业固定资产投资对粮食生产具有正向影响,边际弹性系数分别为0.001458,0.116508,有效灌溉面积、劳动力、农机总动力、化肥、农膜、农药、农村用电量对粮食生产具有弱负向影响。[结论] 加大财政支持力度,加快推进农业现代化进程,增强科技对粮食生产的贡献率,是保障安徽省粮食生产可持续发展的重要途径。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Dynamic changes and driving factors of between food security and cropland pressure of Anhui Province were explored to provide a decision-making reference for management in making food security policy.[Methods] The cropland pressure index model, C-D production model and the partial least squares regression method were used for comprehensive analysis on dynamic characteristics and the driving factors of food production and cropland pressure in Anhui Province from 1995 to 2013.[Results] (1) The contradiction was prominent between population growth and the reduction of cropland area. The population increased from 60 million in 1995 to 69.29 million in 2013, showing a linear growth trend; while cropland area reduced from 4.29×106 hm2 in 1995 to 4.19×106 hm2 in 2013, showing a downward trend. (2) Mean pressure index and bearing capacity index were 0.345 and 0.747 respectively. The cropland resource endowment was still in a surplus state, and Anhui Province was the national commodity grain surplus region with an average surplus rate of 25.32%. (3) Grain crop sowing area and agricultural investment in fixed assets had positive impacts on food production with marginal elasticity coefficient 0.001 458 and 0.116 508 respectively. Effective irrigation area, total power of agricultural machinery, fertilizer use, pesticide use and rural electricity consumption had weak negative impacts.[Conclusion] The enhancement of financial support, the acceleration of agricultural modernization process and the increase of contribution rate of science and technology to food production are important ways to safeguard the sustainable development of food production in Anhui Province.

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陈素平,张乐勤.安徽省1995-2013年粮食生产与耕地压力动态变化特征及驱动因素[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(3):167-173,187

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  • 收稿日期:2016-09-18
  • 最后修改日期:2016-10-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-07-11
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