基于系统动力学模型的扬州市土地利用结构多情景模拟与实现
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

江苏省自然科学基金项目“不确定条件下区域土地资源优化配置方法研究”(BK20140236);大学生创新计划项目(XSJCX7013)


Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Structure of Yangzhou City Based on Systems Dynamics Model
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    [目的]对江苏省扬州市未来土地利用结构进行多情景预测模拟,并探索不同情景下各目标土地利用结构的实现路径,为土地利用规划方案制定与管理提供科学依据。[方法]采用系统动力学(SD)模型模拟土地利用系统开展研究。[结果]在不同情景下几类主要用地差异明显,耕地面积在耕地保护情景下较高,而在生态保护与经济发展情景下耕地缓慢下降;城镇工矿用地与交通水利用地面积在3种情景下均获得稳定增长,但经济发展情景下的增长快于其他2个情景;林地面积在生态保护情景下出现大幅上升,在另外2个情景下则基本保持不变甚至小幅下降。结合各情景指标设定可得出,耕地保护情景下,除控制城镇扩张占用耕地外,还要加强未利用地开发与农村居民点整理以补充耕地;生态保护情景下,则需加强植树造林、保护好具有丰富生态服务价值的水域、滩涂用地。[结论]SD模型不仅可模拟不同情景下土地利用变化,还可将土地利用与社会经济系统之间的复杂非线性关系显化,有利于土地资源可持续利用调控。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] This manuscript aimed to simulate and forecast the land use structure under multiple development scenarios of Yangzhou City in Jiangsu Province, as well as to explore the paths to realize them, which were expected to provide considerable scientific references for land use planning and formulating.[Methods] The system dynamics(SD) model was used to simulate the land use system.[Results] The main land use types would vary under different scenarios. Under the protection of farmland scenario, the arable land area would increase; while under the ecological protection and economic development scenarios, the arable land would decline slowly. Either urban industrial and mining land, or land for traffic or water conservancy area would achieve stable growth in all three scenarios, but the growth in the economic development scenario would be quicker than that under the other two scenarios. The forest land area increase sharply under the scenario of ecological protection, but remain would not change or even decrease slightly in the other two scenarios. Under the scenario of farmland protection, urban expansion and the occupation of cultivated land should be under control. Besides that, unused land development and rural residential land consolidation should be strengthened to replenish cultivated land. In the ecological protection scenario, the ecological service value of waters, beaches should be protected. This might help to adjust industrial structure, and transform the traditional GDP to green GDP.[Conclusion] SD model can not only simulate the land use change under different scenarios, but also can reveal the complex nonlinear relationship between land use and socio-economic system, which is conducive to the sustainable use of land resources regulation.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

胡宗楠,李鑫,楼淑瑜,康建荣.基于系统动力学模型的扬州市土地利用结构多情景模拟与实现[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(4):211-218

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-07
  • 最后修改日期:2016-11-09
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2017-09-12
  • 出版日期: