基于小波分析和灰色预测的莺落峡年径流量特征分析
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国家重点研发计划项目“无控制性工程地区洪水疏渗蓄综合利用技术”(2016YFC0400908)


Analysis of Annual Runoff Characteristics of Yingluoxia Based on Wavelet Analysis and Gray Prediction
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    摘要:

    [目的]研究黑河莺落峡年径流量的变化规律及周期特征,为水量调配和水资源管理提供理论基础与科学依据。[方法]基于黑河莺落峡水文站1944-2014年径流量实测资料,采用Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall突变和灰色预测等方法分析了莺落峡流域径流变化趋势及其变化特征。[结果]莺落峡年径流量呈现微弱的增加趋势,年径流量距平百分率的倾向率为2.78%/10 a。在莺落峡流域径流小波方差分析图中,有4个较为明显的峰值,它们依次对应的时间尺度为43,56,12和9 a。43 a时间尺度对应的最大峰是莺落峡流域年径流变化的第一主周期。根据年径流主周期的循环交替特征推测,在2020年左右莺落峡流域处于丰水时期,年径流量预测为1.843×109 m3。[结论]莺落峡年径流量周期变化特征明显,径流量呈增加趋势。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The changing regularity and cycle characteristics of annual runoff of Yingluoxia in Heihe River was researched to provide theoretical and scientific bases for water allocation and water resources management.[Methods] Based on the measured data of runoff from Yingluoxia hydrological station in Heihe River basin during 1944 to 2014, Morlet wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation and gray prediction were used to analyze the trend of runoff and its variation characteristics.[Results] Yingluoxia annual runoff had a slight upward trend, the tendency of annual runoff anomaly percentage rate was 2.78%/10 a. Yingluoxia runoff wavelet variance figure had four obvious peaks, in turn corresponding to 43-year, 56-year, 12-year and 9-year time scales. Among them, the maximum peak is at 43-year time scale, and this is the first major cycle of runoff change. According to the cyclic alternation of main runoff, the Yingluo Gorge basin will be in the period of abundant water in 2020, and the annual runoff is predicted to be 1.843 billion m3.[Conclusion] The annual variation of runoff is obvious and the runoff is increasing in Yingluoxia basin.

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李培都,司建华,冯起,赵春彦,王春林.基于小波分析和灰色预测的莺落峡年径流量特征分析[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(4):242-247

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  • 收稿日期:2017-01-18
  • 最后修改日期:2017-02-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-09-12
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