贵州省境内长江流域不同水系气候变化特征对比研究
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国家十三五重点研发计划项目“喀斯特高原山地石漠化综合治理与混农林业复合经营技术与示范”(2016YFC0502601);贵州省科学技术基金(黔科合基础[2016]1101);贵州师范大学2016年博士科研启动基金项目


Comparison of Climate Change Characteristics of Different Watersheds in Yangtze River Basin of Guizhou Province
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    摘要:

    [目的]分析57 a来贵州境内长江流域气温与降水变化规律,为贵州喀斯特地区环境演化提供科学支撑,同时也为区域适应和减缓气候变化提供对策。[方法]基于1960-2016年贵州省境内长江流域的12个气象站点的月平均气温和降水数据,运用累计距平、5 a滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变检验和回归分析等方法,对流域气候特征及动态进行了分析。[结果]流域总体上气温呈升高趋势,升温率为0.14℃/10 a,降水量波动中有小幅下降趋势,降幅为12.94 mm/10 a;气温在1997年发生一次突变,突变前后温度变化差异较大,而降水量无明显突变;气温和降水主要受经度、海拔影响而表现东西分布的显著差异;在各水系,气温升温趋势占主导地位,降水量呈M形波动且有小幅下降趋势;相关性分析表明降水量随着气温的升高而减少,尤其乌江水系降水量的变化对气温的敏感性较高。[结论]总体而言,该流域与整个贵州省乃至西南地区气候变化趋势相吻合,朝着暖干化的方向发展,为遏制这一趋势应提高植被覆盖率,改善区域小气候。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] In order to provide scientific support for environmental evolution in Guizhou karst area and countermeasures for adapting to and mitigating climate change in the region changing regulations of temperature and precipitation in Yangtze River basin in Guizhou Province in recent 57 years were analyzed.[Methods] Based on data of monthly average temperature and precipitation of 12 meteorological stations in Yangtze River basin of Guizhou Province from 1960 to 2016, and applying methods of cumulative anomaly, 5 a moving average, Mann-Kendall mutation test and regression analysis, climate characteristics and change were analyzed.[Results] The results showed that temperature trend in the basin had increased in general, with an increasing ratio of 0.14℃/10 a. There was a slight fluctuated downward trend for precipitation, with a decrease ratio of 12.94 mm/10 a. A temperature inflection occurred in 1997, there was a great difference in temperature before and after the inflection point, but no obvious change was found in precipitation. Resulted from the different effect of longitude and altitude, temperature and precipitation is different obviously in east-westward direction. In all water systems, temperature was mainly in a rising trend. Precipitation showed a M shaped fluctuation with slight downward trend. Correlation analysis showed that precipitation decreased with increase of temperature, especially the change of precipitation in Wujiang River had very high sensibility with temperature.[Conclusion] In general, the basin is consistent with the trend of climate change throughout Guizhou Province and even in southwest China as well, and is evolving toward the directions of warming and drying. In order to slow down this trend, vegetation ratio should be increased so as to improve regional microclimate.

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陈海,朱大运,陈浒,文雅琴,林丹丹,王存璐.贵州省境内长江流域不同水系气候变化特征对比研究[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(2):189-197,203

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  • 收稿日期:2017-11-13
  • 最后修改日期:2017-12-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-05-17
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