[Objective] Forecasting agricultural water demands aims to provide a basis for holding the 2022 Winter Olympic Games, while helping with a reasonable utilization of future water resources and sustainable development in Chongli District, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province.[Methods] Based on the relationship between water supply and demand, this study evaluated the water resources carrying capacity from 2005 to 2016 and forecasted the water resources carrying capacity for 2022 and 2035.[Results] The index of water supply and demand (IWSD) decreased from 0.54 in 2005 to 0.06 in 2016. Water resources carrying capacity in 2016 tended to be in a critical state. When the guaranteed rate equaled to 25%, IWSD indexes were equal to 0.27 and 0.25 respectively in 2022 and 2035, which indicated the water resources had an adequate carrying capacity. When the guaranteed rate equaled to 50% or 75%, the water resources carrying capacity was overloaded, particularly with the guaranteed rate equaled to 75%, IWSD indexes were -0.77 and -0.81, respectively, in different years. When adjusting the local planting industry and irrigation water quota, the guaranteed rate equaled to 25% and 50%, IWSD >0. The amounts of shortage water in different years declined by 22.68% and 36.31%, respectively, with guaranteed rate equal to 75%.[Conclusion] To address overloading water resources adjusting the agricultural irrigation area, decreasing irrigation water quotas, and increasing surface water use, as well as decreasing groundwater exploitation will help maintain an adequate carrying capacity.