[Objective] The change of ecosystem carbon stock caused by the change of surface cover in Liping County, Guizhou Province was evaluated, in order to provide scientific basis for the management of regional carbon source and sink, and the development goal of "large ecology".[Methods] Based on the land use data of 2005, 2010 and 2015, the carbon sequestration capacity of the ecosystem of Liping County from 2005 to 2025 was quantitatively evaluated by combined the CA-Markov model with the InVEST carbon storage module.[Results] ① From 2005 to 2015, the cultivated land, forest land and unused land in Liping County decreased, while the grassland, construction land and water area increased generally. ② And the overall variation of land use change in 2015-2025 was consistent with that in 2005-2015. The cultivated land decreased from 2.37% in 2005-2015 to 4.21% in 2015-2025. ③ The total carbon stock and average carbon density of Liping County ecosystem were 9.12×10⁷ t and 206.61 t/hm², respectively in 2015, which has decreased by 2.00×10⁵ t and 0.45 t/hm² since 2005. In 2025, the carbon storage and average carbon density of Liping County was predicted to be 8.98×10⁷ t and 203.44 t/hm², respectively.[Conclusion] The carbon sequestration capacity of the ecological system in Liping County is weakening. The transfer of forest in large scale and the expansion of construction land are the direct reasons for the decline of carbon storage. In the future, the optimization of land use structure should be strengthened.