[目的] 探索黄河输沙预测的新思路，预估黄河未来输沙态势与输沙量水平，为黄河流域生态治理规划提供参考。[方法] 结合黄河流域水土保持生态修复现状，采用单累积曲线法、滑动平均及频率分析方法，分析1950—2019年黄河主要来沙区间的实测输沙量变化特征及其未来态势。[结果] 1950—2019年黄河输沙量呈现阶梯式减少。1950—2019年黄河中游各站累积实测输沙量随时间的变化可用“左半抛物线”表征。黄河输沙量自1997年以来已进入相对稳定态势，目前已达企稳状态；黄河潼关站未来年输沙量在90%频率下为1.00×108 t左右，在10%频率下为5.00×108 t左右，未来多年平均输沙量为1.40×108 t。[结论] 为了维持黄河输沙量低稳状态，提升水土保持措施质量与标准，补齐“后水土保持”短板，构建完善的水沙关系调控体系，维持黄河下游河道冲淤平衡，是黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的保障。
[Objective] New ideas in studying the variations of sediment discharge was explored to predict the future trend of sediment transportation level in the Yellow River, in order to provide a reference for the ecological management and hydraulic planning in this region.[Methods] Cumulative curve, moving average method and frequency analysis were used to analyze the variation characteristics and future trend of sediment discharge at the mainstream stations of the Yellow River from 1950 to 2019, based on the current status of soil and water conservation measures in the basin.[Results] The sediment discharge of the Yellow River decreased step by step from 1950 to 2019. From 1950 to 2019, the variation of cumulative measured sediment discharge at stations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River could be characterized by a “semi parabola”. According to the current status of ecological restoration and soil and water conservation in the Yellow River basin, sediment discharge of the Yellow River remained relative stable after 1997, and has reached a steady state in recent years. The annual sediment discharge at Tongguan station of the Yellow River over the next years was expected to be 1.00×108 tons at 90% frequency and 5.00×108 tons at 10% frequency， and the average annual sediment discharge was expected to be 1.40×108 tons.[Conclusion] In order to maintain a lower and stable state of sediment discharge in the Yellow River, improving the quality and standard of soil and water conservation measures, strengthening the weakness of post soil and water conservation, and establishing a comprehensive runoff-sediment regulation system are crucial to balance the scouring and silting in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, which is the guarantee of ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.