[Objective] New ideas in studying the variations of sediment discharge was explored to predict the future trend of sediment transportation level in the Yellow River, in order to provide a reference for the ecological management and hydraulic planning in this region.[Methods] Cumulative curve, moving average method and frequency analysis were used to analyze the variation characteristics and future trend of sediment discharge at the mainstream stations of the Yellow River from 1950 to 2019, based on the current status of soil and water conservation measures in the basin.[Results] The sediment discharge of the Yellow River decreased step by step from 1950 to 2019. From 1950 to 2019, the variation of cumulative measured sediment discharge at stations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River could be characterized by a “semi parabola”. According to the current status of ecological restoration and soil and water conservation in the Yellow River basin, sediment discharge of the Yellow River remained relative stable after 1997, and has reached a steady state in recent years. The annual sediment discharge at Tongguan station of the Yellow River over the next years was expected to be 1.00×10⁸ tons at 90% frequency and 5.00×10⁸ tons at 10% frequency， and the average annual sediment discharge was expected to be 1.40×10⁸ tons.[Conclusion] In order to maintain a lower and stable state of sediment discharge in the Yellow River, improving the quality and standard of soil and water conservation measures, strengthening the weakness of post soil and water conservation, and establishing a comprehensive runoff-sediment regulation system are crucial to balance the scouring and silting in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, which is the guarantee of ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.