广东省土地利用-碳减排-经济增长的脱钩关系
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中图分类号:

F301.2;X24

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国家社会科学基金项目“北部湾‘山水林田湖海’关键性生态修复与城镇化融合发展的多维测度与优化研究”(21XGL015); 国家自然科学基金项目(41966007); 广西哲学社会科学项目 (20CGL004)


Decoupling Relationship of Landuse Carbon Emission Reduction and Economic Growth in Guangdong Province
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    摘要:

    [目的] 探究土地利用碳排放及其与经济增长的脱钩关系并进行实证分析,为广东省在“十四五”期间绿色低碳循环经济发展提供参考依据。[方法] 运用碳排放系数法,测算广东省2003—2018年土地利用碳排放量。借助经济合作与发展组织(OECD)脱钩模型,评估了土地利用碳排放与经济增长的脱钩情况。采用灰色关联模型,分析了影响脱钩情况的主要因素。[结果] ①广东省土地利用碳排放量由2003年的2.39×108 t增加到2018年的6.72×108 t,碳排放总量增加4.33×108 t,年平均增长率达7.2%; ②土地利用碳排放与经济增长的脱钩指数总体变化为2003—2008年由0.948 3下降至0.296 9,2009—2015年由0.941 8先增至1.123 6再降至0.257 2,2016—2018年由0.471 9下降至0.416 8。脱钩关系大体经历了“相对脱钩Ⅳ—相对脱钩Ⅱ—绝对挂钩—相对脱钩Ⅰ—相对脱钩Ⅳ—相对脱钩Ⅱ”发展过程,尚未形成稳定的脱钩状态; ③从碳排放视角来看,产业结构和煤炭消费比例与脱钩关系的关联度为0.748,0.741,是主要影响因素。从经济发展视角来看,社会固定资产投资和科研经费支出与脱钩关系的关联度为0.782,0.772,是主要驱动因素。[结论] 土地利用碳排放与经济增长脱钩发展的本质是以碳减排为核心的区域经济与资源环境协调发展的关系,广东省土地利用碳排放量与经济发展均呈递增趋势,当前阶段虽然土地利用碳排放量的增长率为正值且低于经济发展增长率,但土地利用碳排放量的增速放缓,有利于二者向绝对脱钩状态发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The decoupling mechanism between landuse carbon emission and economic growth was analyzed, and an empirical study was conducted in order to provide a reference for developing a green low-carbon circular economy in Guangdong Province during the 14th five-year plan period. [Methods] Using the carbon emission coefficient method, the landuse carbon emissions of Guangdong Province from 2003 to 2018 were calculated. With the organization for economic co-operation and development (OECD) decoupling model, the decoupling between landuse carbon emissions and economic growth was evaluated. The main factors affecting the decoupling were analyzed by the grey correlation model. [Results] ① The carbon emissions from land use in Guangdong Province increased from 239.256 9 tons in 2003 to 671.973 9 million tons in 2018, and the total carbon emissions increased by 432.716 9 million tons in 15 years, with an average annual growth rate of 7.2%. ② The decoupling index decreased from 0.948 3 in 2003 to 0.296 9 in 2008; increased from 0.941 8 to 1.123 6 and then decreased to 0.257 2 in 2009—2015; and decreased from 0.471 9 in 2016 to 0.416 8 in 2018. The decoupling relationship between landuse carbon emissions and economic growth in Guangdong Province had generally undergone the development process of “relative decoupling Ⅳ, relative decoupling Ⅱ, absolute linkage, relative decoupling Ⅰ, relative decoupling Ⅳ and relative decoupling Ⅱ ”, A stable decoupling state had not yet been formed. ③ From the perspective of carbon emissions, industrial structure and proportion of coal consumption were the main infuencing factors, with correlation values of 0.748 and 0.741. From the perspective of economic development, social fixed assets investment and scientific research funds were the main driving factors, with correlation values of 0.782 and 0.772. [Conclusion] The essence of decoupling development between landuse carbon emission and economic growth is the coordinated development of the regional economy, and resources and environment centered on carbon emission reduction. Landuse carbon emissions and economic development in Guangdong Province currently showed an increasing trend, although the growth rate of landuse carbon emissions is positive and lower than the growth rate of economic development. However, the growth rate of landuse carbon emissions is gradually slowing, and this development will be conducive to the absolute decoupling between land use carbon emissions and economic growth.

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张中秋,劳燕玲,赵宁俊,韦金洪,胡宝清.广东省土地利用-碳减排-经济增长的脱钩关系[J].水土保持通报,2022,42(1):250-258,266

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  • 收稿日期:2021-07-08
  • 最后修改日期:2021-10-07
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-03-12