[Objective] The temporal and spatial changes of the cultivated land resource carrying capacity index of Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed, and the cultivated land resource carrying capacity index and human-grain relationship were predicted from 2020 to 2025, in order to provide theoretical reference for territorial spatial planning and cultivated land protection policy in Shaanxi Province. [Methods] Based on the panel data of the statistical yearbook, the research was carried out by using the center of gravity migration model, Geodetector and GM(1,1) model. [Results] ① From 2010 to 2019, the overall grain production, population, and cultivated land carrying capacity of Shaanxi Province increased, while the LCCI (land carrying capacity index) fluctuated slightly and decreased, and the human-grain relationship slightly eased. The LCCI of different administrative region fluctuated greatly, and the time periods of the drastic changes occurred from 2010 to 2011, 2014 to 2015, and 2017 to 2018. ② From 2010 to 2019, there were great regional differences in the LCCI in Shaanxi Province, showing a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north. Xi’an City and Yangling Agricultural Hi-tech Industries Demonstration Zone were high-value centers, while Yulin City was a low-value center. From the perspective of zoning, the order of the LCCI was Southern Shaanxi region＞ Guanzhong region＞ Northern Shaanxi region. The center of gravity of the LCCI of Shaanxi Province in the past 10 years was located in Xianyang City, and the overall migration direction was from northeast to southwest, pointing to Xi’an City and Yangling Agricultural Hi-tech Industries Demonstration Zone. There were obvious mutation in the path between 2013—2015 and 2017—2018, which was related to the fluctuation of the LCCI of different administrative regions. ③ The most important factor affecting the temporal and spatial changes of the LCCI in Shaanxi Province was the per capita cultivated land area, with an average explanatory rate of 69.21%. ④ It was predicted that the LCCI of Shaanxi Province would decline slightly from 2020 to 2025, and the spatial pattern would remain high in the south and low in the north. Except for the two low-value centers of Tongchuan City and Weinan City, Yulin City, the human-grain relationship in other administrative regions were more tense. [Conclusion] The human-grain relationship in Shaanxi Province is relatively tense, and the changes in the cultivated LCCI of various administrative regions show volatility and strong spatial heterogeneity. The cultivated LCCI in Shaanxi Province is mainly affected by the area of cultivated land per capita.