[目的] 探究黄河流域近20 a土地利用变化并对2030年土地利用进行预测，分析景观格局指数，揭示生态风险状况，助力黄河流域景观保护修复和规划治理。[方法] 使用FLUS模型，根据2000，2010，2020年土地利用数据，结合社会、经济、地形、气候等因子对该区2030年土地利用状况进行预测，通过景观指数构建景观生态风险指数，并进行深入分析探讨。[结果] ①2000—2020年耕地面积减少12 150 km2，林地面积增加2 514 km2，建设用地面积增加10 620 km2。②黄河流域优势景观为草地和耕地，但优势性逐渐降低，整体景观连通性增加、聚集性减弱，景观多样性呈增长趋势，但整体仍不均衡。③工作区景观生态风险以低、较低风险为主，中风险为辅，共占该区总面积88%以上，各生态风险区在空间上相对稳定，在时间上呈逐步恶化趋势。④预测2030年建设用地面积增速减缓，耕地、草地、未利用地面积继续减少，景观破碎度增加，低、较低生态风险区域增加1.12%，高风险区域增加0.26%，其余风险区域变化较小。[结论] 国家人口增长、城市逐步扩张对土地利用影响巨大，进而导致景观破碎，加之黄河流域环境脆弱，风沙强度大，荒漠化程度高，区域生态风险增高，需要国家更加关注该区域的生态保护和高质量发展。
[Objective] The land use changes in the Yellow River basin during the past two decades were analyzed in order to predict land use in 2030, analyze the landscape pattern index, reveal ecological risk status, and assist with landscape protection, restoration, planning, and governance of the Yellow River basin. [Methods] The FLUS model with land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 was used combined with social, economic, topographic, and climatic data and other factors to predict the land use status of the area in 2030. A landscape ecological risk index was constructed through the landscape index, and an in-depth analysis was conducted. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of cultivated land decreased by 12 150 km2, the area of forest land increased by 2 514 km2, and the area of construction land increased by 10 620 km2. ② The dominant landscapes in the Yellow River basin were grassland and cultivated land, but the dominance gradually decreased, the overall landscape connectivity increased, aggregation decreased, and landscape diversity increased over time, but the overall landscape was still unbalanced. ③ Landscape ecological risks in the work area were dominated by low and lower risks, supplemented by medium risk, accounting for more than 88% of the total area. The ecological risk areas were relatively stable in space and gradually deteriorated over time. ④ By 2030, the growth rate of construction land area will slow down, the area of cultivated land, grassland, and unused land will continue to decrease, and landscape fragmentation will increase. The low and lower ecological risk areas increased by 1.12%, the high risk areas increased by 0.26%, and the rest of the risk areas changed little. [Conclusion] The country’s population growth and the gradual expansion of cities have had a huge impact on land use, resulting in fragmented landscapes. In addition, the environment of the Yellow River basin is fragile, with high sandstorm intensity, high degree of desertification, and increased regional ecological risks. The country needs to give more attention to ecological protection and high-quality development of the region.