[目的] 研究广西壮族自治区桂林市景区扩容对土地利用格局的影响，为应对旅游需求激增带来的风险，整治优化国土空间以及科学引导旅游业发展提供理论参考。[方法] 通过设置常规情景与景区扩容情景，运用核密度分析法以及未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型模拟与预测桂林市2025年不同情景下的土地利用格局，并根据逐像元对比及景观指数分析不同情景下的土地利用格局差异。[结果] ①对景区的扩容能够在一定程度上减少桂林市旅游热点区域的游客接待压力，但并不利于旅游热点区域周边区县城镇化的推进。②对景区的扩容有利于阳朔县、兴安县等“增长极”旅游业的发展，并辐射与带动周边的大多区县。建设用地扩张加剧，耕地扩张减缓。而桂林市北部由于建设用地分布较为分散，各区县间的辐射与带动作用相对局限，景区扩容情景下兴安县、全州县、龙胜各族自治县旅游业更迅猛的发展对于资源县与灌阳县的辐射与带动作用并不显著，反而使资源县与灌阳县对建设用地资源的竞争力相对更低。③景观指数表明，对景区的扩容会导致耕地、林地、草地与灌木等农业与生态空间遭到更严重的干扰与侵占，但对于水体与湿地的保护更有利，建设用地的扩张也更具整体性。[结论] 桂林市对景区扩容工作的推进会降低旅游热点区域的游客接待压力，促进“增长极”及周边大多区县旅游业的发展，但并不利于热点区域周边以及较为偏远、不在各区县相互辐射范围内区域的发展。
[Objective] The impact of scenic spot expansion on the land use pattern of Guilin City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region was analyzed in order to provide a theoretical reference for coping with the risks brought by a surge in tourism demand, leading to reasonable urban land planning and scientifically guiding the development of tourism. [Methods] The nuclear density analysis method and the future land use simulation (FLUS) model were used to predict and simulate the land use pattern of Guilin City in 2025 under a conventional scenario and under a scenario with scenic spot expansion. Differences in land use patterns between the two scenarios were analyzed by pixel comparison and by landscape indices. [Results] ① Scenic spot expansion will reduce the reception pressure in tourism hot spots in Guilin City, but it would not be conducive to the urbanization of districts and counties close to the tourism hot spots. ② Scenic spot expansion would be conducive to the development of tourism in “growth poles”, such as Yangshuo and Xing’an County, and the influence of the “growth poles” would also impact most surrounding districts and counties, resulting in a greater expansion of construction land, but a smaller expansion of cultivated land. However, due to the scattered distribution of construction land in the north part of Guilin City, the radiations and driving factors among districts and counties would be relatively limited. Under the scenic spot expansion scenario, more rapid development of tourism in Xing’an, Quanzhou, and Longsheng County had no significant radiation and driving effects on tourism in Ziyuan and Guanyang County, but made these areas less competitive in construction land. ③ The landscape indices showed that scenic spot expansion would lead to more serious disturbance and occupation of agricultural and ecological space such as cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and shrubland. However, scenic spot expansion would promote protection of water bodies and wetlands, and the expansion of construction land would be more integrated. [Conclusion] Scenic spot expansion in Guilin City would reduce the reception pressure in tourism hot spots and promote the development of tourism in “growth poles” and most regions surrounding the “growth poles”. However, scenic spot expansion would not be conducive to the development of areas around tourism hot spots and areas that are relatively remote and not within the radiation ranges.