基于确定性系数法的梯田型黄土滑坡隐患影响因素分析
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P694

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宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划项目“宁南山区黄土滑坡隐患监测预警研究与示范”(2022BEG03059)


Sensitivity Analysis on Factors Influencing Loess Terrace Landslide Potential Using Certainty Factor Method
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    摘要:

    [目的] 研究梯田型黄土滑坡隐患的影响因素,旨在揭示梯田型黄土滑坡隐患的形成机理,为防治梯田型黄土滑坡隐患提供科学依据。 [方法] 基于GEE云计算平台,以宁夏回族自治区彭阳县为研究区,使用随机森林算法,提取研究区梯田分布信息,并基于叠置分析确定了研究区梯田型黄土滑坡隐患的高、极高易发性分区,选取8个影响因素,采用确定性系数法进行了分析。 [结果] ①研究区梯田占全县总面积的47.28%,梯田影响范围内的正在变形区没有、潜在不稳定斜坡有86处。 ②梯田型黄土滑坡隐患高、极高易发性分区占研究区高、极高易发性分区总面积的46.68%,占研究区梯田总面积的27.64%。 ③降雨量、地层岩性、沟谷密度、坡向对研究区内梯田型黄土滑坡隐患的空间分布具有较强的控制作用。 [结论] 研究区梯田型黄土滑坡隐患的主要控制因素是降雨量与地层岩性,尤其是当降水量>450 mm,且存在第四系石质黄土夹古土壤地层的地区。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The factors influencing landslide potential of loess terraces and the associated landslide formation mechanisms were studied in order to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of loess terrace landslides. [Methods] With data from the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform for Pengyang County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, we used the random forest algorithm to extract terrace distribution information in the study area. Based on the overlay analysis method, the high and extremely high susceptibility zones of potential loess terrace landslides in the study area were determined. Eight influencing factors were selected, and the certainty factor method was used for analysis. [Results] ① The terrace area in the study area accounted for 47.28% of the total area of the county. There were 86 potentially unstable slopes, and there were no deforming areas within the influence range of terraces. ② The high and extremely high susceptibility zones for potential landslides of loess terraces accounted for 46.68% of the total area of high and extremely high susceptibility zones in the study area (27.64% of the total area of terraces in the study area). ③ Rainfall, stratum lithology, gully density, and slope direction had strong controlling effects on the spatial distribution of potential landslides of loess terraces in the study area. [Conclusion] The main controlling factors for potential landslides of loess terraces in the study area were rainfall and stratum lithology, especially in the area where the annual rainfall was more than 450 mm and there were Quaternary stone loess with paleosol strata.

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毛正君,张瑾鸽,仲佳鑫,王军.基于确定性系数法的梯田型黄土滑坡隐患影响因素分析[J].水土保持通报,2023,43(2):183-192,340

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  • 收稿日期:2022-05-27
  • 最后修改日期:2022-07-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-06-01
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