华北地区粮食生产碳排放效率空间分异及动态演进
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1.山东师范大学;2.山东省宏观经济研究院

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TP79

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山东省高等学校“青创团队计划”基金资助项目(2022RW063)


Spatial Differentiation and Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Emission Efficiency in Grain Production in North China
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Shandong academy of Macroeconomic Research

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    摘要:

    【目的】“双碳”背景下,探究华北地区市域粮食生产碳排放效率并量化其空间分异及动态演进规律,分析华北地区粮食生产碳排放效率现状,有利于促进华北地区粮食绿色低碳生产。【方法】采用碳排放系数法测算2011-2020年华北地区市域粮食生产碳排放,在此基础上,运用三阶段超效率SBM模型进一步测度华北地区粮食生产碳排放效率,最后借助泰尔指数和核密度估计分别探究了粮食生产碳排放效率的地区差异及动态演进。【结果】①研究期内,华北地区市域粮食生产碳排放呈“M”型波动下降趋势,但下降缓慢。②华北地区市域粮食生产碳排放效率呈先降后升的演变趋势,第一阶段效率均值为0.59,剔除环境变量和随机误差对效率值的影响,第三阶段效率均值为0.48,明显低于第一阶段效率。其中,滁州、驻马店、德州等地效率值较高,而三门峡、黄山、济源等地效率值较低。③粮食生产碳排放效率空间差异呈上升趋势,区域内差异是影响总体差异的主要因素,其中安徽省各地市差异最为显著。④核密度估计结果显示,研究期内,波峰呈波动上升的趋势,主峰向右移动的幅度较小且主要以单峰出现,侧峰隆起幅度较小,各地级市的粮食生产碳排放效率主要集中于0.4-0.6之间,华北地区各市粮食生产碳排放效率水平整体较低。【结论】华北地区粮食生产碳排放效率整体水平较低,且地区差异明显,应减少化肥等物资投入冗余,加强地区交流与合作。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Under the background of “double carbon”, exploring the carbon emission efficiency of grain production in North China and quantifying its spatial differentiation and dynamic evolution, and analyzing the current situation of carbon emission efficiency of grain production in North China are conducive to promoting green and low-carbon grain production in North China. [Method] The carbon emission coefficient method and the three-stage super-efficiency SBM model were used to measure the carbon emission and carbon emission efficiency of grain production in North China from 2011 to 2020, and then the Theil index and kernel density estimation were used to explore the regional differences and dynamic evolution of carbon emission efficiency of grain production. [Result] ①During the study period, the carbon emissions of grain production in North China showed an “M” type fluctuation downward trend, but the decline was slow. Among them, the use of chemical fertilizers is the main cause of grain carbon emissions. ②The carbon emission efficiency of grain production in North China showed an evolution trend of decreasing first and then increasing. The average efficiency of the first stage was 0.59. Excluding the influence of environmental variables and random errors on the efficiency value, the average efficiency of the third stage was 0.48, which was 18.6 % lower than the efficiency value of the first stage. Chuzhou, Zhumadian, Dezhou and other places have higher efficiency values, while Huangshan, Weihai and other places have lower efficiency values. ③The spatial difference of carbon emission efficiency of grain production is on the rise, and the regional difference is the main factor affecting the overall difference, among which the difference among cities in Henan Province is the most significant. ④During the investigation period of the sample, the kernel density function. changed from “single peak” to “double peak”, the main peak showed a fluctuating rise and a slight right shift trend, and the side peak uplift was small. [Conclusion] The overall level of carbon emission efficiency of grain production in North China is low, and there are obvious spatial differentiation characteristics. In the future, all regions should reduce the redundancy of material input such as chemical fertilizer, and adopt the strategy of “counterpart assistance ” to promote the benign interaction of grain production technology, so as to narrow the regional differences in carbon emission efficiency of grain production among regions.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-05-18
  • 最后修改日期:2023-08-09
  • 录用日期:2023-08-10
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-06-28
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