新一轮退耕还林还草工程对土地利用效率的影响——基于黄河流域的实证研究
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F293.2

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国家自然科学基金项目“低碳约束下黄河流域城市土地利用效率研究:测度、驱动机理与提升路径”(42061051);教育部春晖计划项目(HZKY20220422);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2022LHMS07003)


Impacts of a New Round of Returning Farmland to Forests and Grasslands Project on Land Use Efficiency—Empirical Study in Yellow River Basin
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    [目的] 分析新一轮退耕还林还草工程实施对黄河流域土地利用效率的影响机制与政策效果,为深刻理解土地利用效率与持续推进退耕还林还草工程提供理论参考。[方法] 以黄河流域新一轮退耕还林还草工程政策实施作为自然实验,采用包含非期望产出指标的Super-Window-DEA模型测度土地利用效率,采用双重差分模型与中介效应模型分析政策效果与传导途径。[结果] ①2009—2020年黄河流域69个城市的土地利用效率略有下降,上游(0.546 5)和下游(0.419 9)的土地利用效率高于中游(0.279 5); ②新一轮退耕还林还草工程显著抑制了土地利用效率的提高,且政策的负向影响存在异质性,同时,经济发展和人口密度也分别促进和抑制土地利用效率; ③耕地所占比例与财政支出是新一轮退耕还林还草工程影响土地利用效率的中介变量,且耕地比例是部分中介。[结论] 建议在肥力较差、劳动力投入匮乏的土地上推进退耕还林还草工程,鼓励黄河流域各城市开展未利用土地的开荒复绿工作,后续退耕还林还草工程实施过程中根据流域之间土地利用的不同功能开展黄河流域上中下游之间、流域内城市之间的生态补偿,并充分借助信贷资金,引入生态产业化发展,推动绿色产业升级,探索退耕还林还草工程生态补偿的新模式。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The impacts mechanism and policy effectiveness of the implementation of a new round of the returning farmland to forests and grasslands project on land use efficiency in the Yellow River basin were analyzed in order to provide a theoretical reference for understanding land use efficiency and promoting a new round of the returning farmland to forests and grasslands project. [Methods] The implementation of a new round of the returning farmland to forests and grasslands project in the Yellow River basin was used as a natural experiment. Land use efficiency was measured by the Super-Window-DEA model including unexpected output indicators. The double difference model and the mediation effect model were used to analyze the policy effectiveness and transmission pathways. [Results] ① Land use efficiency of 69 cities in the Yellow River basin slightly decreased from 2009 to 2020. Land use efficiencies for the upstream (0.546 5) and downstream (0.419 9) regions were higher than for the midstream region (0.279 5). ② The new round of the returning farmland to forests and grasslands project significantly suppressed the increase in land use efficiency, and the negative effects of policies were heterogeneous. Meanwhile economic development increased land use efficiency and population density decreased land use efficiency. ③ The proportion of arable land and fiscal expenditures were mediating variables for the impact of the new round of the returning farmland to forests and grasslands project on land use efficiency. Moreover, the proportion of farm land was a partial mediator. [Conclusion] The results of this study suggested increasing the implementation of returning farmland to forests and grasslands project on land with poor fertility and scarce labor input, encouraging cities in the Yellow River basin to open up wasteland and implement green policies for unused land. Additionally ecological compensation between the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yellow River basin and cities within the basin should be carried out. Full use should be made of credit funds to lead into ecological industrialization development. Upgrading of green industries should be promoted and efforts should be encouraged to develop a new model of ecological compensation for the project of returning farmland to forests and grasslands.

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薛建春.新一轮退耕还林还草工程对土地利用效率的影响——基于黄河流域的实证研究[J].水土保持通报,2023,43(6):155-164

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-18
  • 最后修改日期:2023-10-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-01-29
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