福州都市圈社会经济水平与生态环境韧性的时空演化及耦合协调性
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X24,F224

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国家自然科学基金项目“毛竹林刚竹毒蛾危害的蔓延机制及模拟研究”(42071300);福建省自然科学基金项目(2020J01504;2016J01188);中国博士后项目(2018M630728);福建省资源环境监测与可持续经营利用重点实验室开放课题(ZD202102);晋江市福大科教园区发展中心科研项目(2019-JJFDKY-17);3S技术与资源优化利用福建省高校重点实验室开放课题(fafugeo201901)


Spatiotemporal Evolution and Coupling Coordination of Socio-economic Level and Ecological Resilience in Fuzhou Metropolitan Area
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    摘要:

    [目的] 分析福州都市圈社会经济水平与生态环境韧性的协调状态及其发展趋势,为该都市圈区高质量、可持续发展提供调控建议与理论参考。[方法] 以福州都市圈27个县域城市为例,构建基于韧性“抵抗—恢复—适应”特征的三维生态环境韧性评价模型,建立普适性的社会经济水平评价指标体系,结合熵权法、耦合协调度模型、核密度估计、剪刀差计算以及重心迁移模型,综合分析福州都市圈社会经济水平与生态环境韧性的耦合协调水平及其时空演化趋势,并通过Pearson相关分析方法探讨影响协调发展的主要因素。[结果] ①福州都市圈的社会经济水平均值由0.181 2上升至0.320 8,高值区在空间上呈现以福州市辖区为核心的“一核三中心”分布特征。②都市圈的生态环境韧性均值由0.429 4下降至0.349 4;韧性及其子系统在空间上存在较强的正自相关性,其中韧性高值区主要集聚于“延平—古田”等内陆山区,而低值区分布于“马尾—湄洲岛”沿海一带,并在福州市辖区及其周围形成了韧性“洼地”。③福州都市圈的耦合协调度均值从0.51稳步提升至0.56,县域社会经济水平与生态环境韧性的发展速度趋于平衡,剪刀差角度普遍减小;协调发展重心向都市圈中部地区移动,进入同步发展类型的县域数量大幅提升;影响都市圈耦合协调发展的主要因素为抗风险指数、人均GDP以及每千人拥有医院床位数。[结论] 福州都市圈的社会经济水平与生态环境韧性在时空上呈现“错位”发展趋势,两系统的耦合协调水平尚有较大的提升空间。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The coordinated state of socio-economic level (SEL) and ecological resilience (ER) in the Fuzhou metropolitan area (FMA) and its development trend were analyzed in order to provide regulatory suggestions and theoretical references for high-quality and sustainable development of this metropolitan area. [Methods] Data were obtained for 27 county cities in FMA, and a three-dimensional ecological resilience evaluation model based on the "resistance-recovery-adaptability" characteristics of resilience was constructed. A universal social and economic level evaluation index system was also constructed. The entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model, kernel density model, scissors difference method, and gravity center migration model were used to determine the temporal and spatial evolution trends of SEL, ER, and coupling and coordination level of FMA. The main factors affecting the coordinated development were determined by Pearson correlation analysis. [Results] ① The mean value of SEL for FMA increased from 0.181 2 to 0.320 8. The spatially high SEL areas were distributed as "one core and three centers" with FMA as the core. ② The mean value of ecological environmental resistance (ER) decreased from 0.429 4 to 0.349 4, and the high ER areas were mainly concentrated in the inland mountainous areas such as "Yanping-Gutian", while the low ER areas were located in the coastal area of "Mawei-Meizhou Island", and formed a resilience "depression" in and around FMA. ER and its subsystems exhibited strong positive autocorrelation in space. ③ The mean value of coupling coordination degree steadily increased from 0.51 to 0.56. The speed of development in terms of the SEL and ER of counties tended to be balanced, and the scissor angle difference generally decreased. The center of gravity of coordinated development moved to the central part of FMA, and the number of counties entering a type of coordinated development increased significantly. The main factors hindering the coupled coordination were the risk resistance index, per capita GDP, and the number of hospital beds per thousand people. [Conclusion] The SEL and ER of FMA showed a trend of "misaligned" development in space-time, and the coupling and coordination level of both still has much room for improvement.

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李诗涵,陈秋霞,许章华,俞辉,朱嘉豪,刘智才,王琳.福州都市圈社会经济水平与生态环境韧性的时空演化及耦合协调性[J].水土保持通报,2023,43(6):311-323

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  • 收稿日期:2023-02-23
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-01-29
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