基于PLUS和InVEST模型贵阳市碳储量时空演变及多情景模拟预测
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贵州大学

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贵州省科技计划项目(黔科中引地[2022]4022)


Temporal and spatial evolution of carbon storage in Guiyang City based on PLUS and InVEST model and multi-scenario simulation and prediction
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    摘要:

    摘 要:[目的]明晰历史和未来时间序列下碳储量时空演变特征,对促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。[方法]以贵阳市为例,利用ArcGIS评估2000—2020年贵阳市的土地利用变化与碳储量时空演变特征,并耦合PLUS-InVEST模型预测2030年不同发展情景下土地利用空间格局及其碳储量变化。[结果](1)2000-2020年贵阳市土地利用变化为耕地和草地转化为水域和建设用地;耕地面积减少了190km2;草地面积减少了188km2;水域面积增加了43km2;建设用地面积锐增了367km2。(2)2000—2020年贵阳市碳储总量呈现先增加后下降趋势,共降低了21.97×105t,在空间上呈现北高南低的分布格局,北部区域是贵阳市的主要碳汇功能区,建设用地扩张是影响研究区碳储量降低的主要原因。(3)2030自然情景、耕地保护和生态保护情景下建设用地分别扩张了279km2、193km2 和175km2,增幅为51.48%、35.61%、32.29%。(4)2030年自然情景、耕地保护和生态保护情景下的碳储总量分别为1399.73×105t、1398.44×105t和1409.55×105t,相较于2020年均在下降。碳储量在空间上始终表现为北高南低的分布格局,生态保护情景下更有利于减缓研究区碳储量的下降趋势。[结论]未来贵阳市在生态环境方面可继续加强退耕还林政策来恢复碳储量水平,而在城市发展方面,应该制定更加合理的综合发展战略,在经济发展的同时又能兼顾生态保护。

    Abstract:

    Abstract:[Objective]?To?clarify?the?spatio-temporal?evolution?characteristics?of?carbon?stocks?under?historical?and?future?time?series?is?of?great?significance?for?promoting?regional?sustainable?development.?[Methods]?Taking?Guiyang?City?as?an?example,?ArcGIS?was?used?to?evaluate?the?spatio-temporal?evolution?characteristics?of?land?use?change?and?carbon?storage?in?Guiyang?from?2000?to?2020,?and?coupled?with?PLUS-InVEST?model?to?predict?the?spatial?pattern?of?land?use?and?its?carbon?storage?changes?under?different?development?scenarios?in?2030.?[Results]?(1)?The?land?use?change?of?Guiyang?City?from?2000?to?2020?was?cultivated?land?and?grassland?transformed?into?water?area?construction?land;?The?cultivated?land?area?decreased?by?190km2.?The?grassland?area?decreased?by?188km2;?Water?area?increased?by?43km2;?Construction?land?area?increased?by?367km2.?(2)?From?2000?to?2020,?the?total?carbon?storage?showed?a?trend?of?first?increase?and?then?decline,?with?a?total?decrease?of?21.97×105t,?showing?a?spatial?distribution?pattern?of?higher?in?the?north?and?lower?in?the?south.?The?northern?region?is?the?main?carbon?sink?function?area?of?Guiyang?City,?and?the?expansion?of?construction?land?is?the?main?reason?for?the?decrease?of?carbon?storage.?(3)?Under?the?natural?scenario,?cultivated?land?protection?and?ecological?protection?scenarios?in?2030,?the?construction?land?will?expand?by?279km2,?193km2?and?175km2,?respectively,?with?an?increase?of?51.48%,?35.61%?and?32.29%.?(4)?The?total?carbon?storage?under?the?natural?scenario,?cultivated?land?protection?and?ecological?protection?scenarios?in?2030?is?1399.73×105t,?1398.44×105t?and?1409.55×105t,?respectively,?which?is?decreasing?compared?with?2020.?The?spatial?distribution?pattern?of?carbon?storage?is?always?high?in?the?north?and?low?in?the?south,?and?the?ecological?protection?scenario?is?more?conducive?to?slowing?down?the?decline?trend?of?carbon?storage?in?the?study?area.?[Conclusion]?In?the?future,?in?terms?of?ecological?environment,?we?can?continue?to?strengthen?the?policy?of?returning?farmland?to?forest?to?restore?the?level?of?carbon?storage,?and?in?terms?of?urban?development,?we?should?formulate?a?more?reasonable?comprehensive?development?strategy?to?take?into?account?both?economic?development?and?ecological?protection..

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-07-12
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-06
  • 录用日期:2023-11-07
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