黄河流域碳生态安全水平空间格局与动态演进
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山西大同大学商学院 大同 037009

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教育部人文社会科学研究规划青年(20YJC630052);山西省社会科学院2022年度青年课题(YWQN202203);山西省社会科学界联合会重点课题(SSKLZDKT2022107);山西省教育厅高校哲学社会科学课题(2022W121);山西大同大学2022年度一般项目(2022K01)。


Spatial Pattern and Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Ecological Security in Yellow River Basin
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    摘要:

    黄河流域作为我国重要的“能源流域”,碳生态安全关系着其生态保护和高质量发展。本研究在DSPIR分析框架下构建黄河流域碳生态安全评价指标体系,借助TOPSIS模型评估碳生态安全水平并运用核密度估计法分析时空演变特征。研究结论表明:(1)2012-2021年黄河流域碳汇量由20.03亿t增加到22.82亿t,碳排放量由20.97亿t增加到44.45亿t,碳汇量与碳排放量之间存在不平衡性。(2)黄河流域整体碳生态安全贴近度指数由2012的0.356增长到2021年的0.639,呈逐年上升趋势,碳生态安全等级由敏感逐渐向良好状态转变。(3)在空间格局上,黄河流域不同区域的核密度曲线右移,总体呈收敛特点,表明其碳安全水平提升显著且差异逐渐缩小。

    Abstract:

    [Objective]The Yellow River Basin is regarded as an important "energy basin" in China, spatial differences and dynamic evolution of carbon ecological security are analyzed to optimize the overall layout of carbon ecological security in the entire basin. [Methods]It constructs an evaluation index system for carbon ecological security in the Yellow River Basin under the framework of Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Response(DPSIR)analysis. Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS) model is used to evaluate the level of carbon ecological security, and the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics are analyzed by kernel density estimation method. [Results](1)the carbon sinks and the carbon emissions have increased from 2012 to 2021in the Yellow River Basin, and the growth rate of carbon emissions is faster than that of carbon sinks. From a spatial perspective, carbon sinks have the characteristic of “high in the west and low in the east”, while carbon emissions have the characteristic of “low in the west and high in the east”. (2)The carbon ecological security level in the Yellow River Basin has been increasing year by year, from 0.356 in 2012 to 0.639 in 2021. In terms of spatial distribution, the carbon ecological security level in the upstream region is higher than that in the middle and downstream regions, which is characterized by “upstream leading, midstream catching up, and downstream surpassing”. In addition, the level of carbon ecological security tends to be good. (3)Based on the results of kernel density estimation, the differences in carbon security levels among regions in the Yellow River Basin are gradually narrowing, and which in the upstream region are decreasing faster than those in the middle and downstream regions. [Conclusion]Based on the current status of carbon ecological security in the Yellow River Basin, carbon sinks capacity in the upstream region would be continued to enhance, while technology-intensive industries with high added value and clean energy industries would be developed to promote green GDP growth in the middle and downstream regions. In addition, carbon ecological compensation mechanism is established to coordinate relation about carbon ecological security among different regions, and improve the carbon ecological security level of the entire basin

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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-28
  • 最后修改日期:2023-09-22
  • 录用日期:2023-09-27
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