中国粮食主产区耕地利用效率区域差异及影响因素—基于179个地级市的实证研究
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青岛农业大学

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F323

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山东省软科学重点项目(2021RZB06025);山东省重点研发计划项目(2021TZXD003-004)


Research on regional differences and influencing factors of cultivated land utilization efficiency of the major grain producing area in China
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    摘要:

    [目的] 粮食主产区在实现粮食稳产保供中具有重要的战略地位,提升粮食主产区耕地利用效率是保障粮食安全和实现农业可持续发展的制度安排。[方法] 创新性的运用两阶段动态网络DEA模型,测算粮食主产区2010—2020年179个地级市耕地利用效率,并通过ArcGIS可视化技术和核密度估计分析其时空演变特征,基于此,构建Tobit模型探究耕地利用效率影响因素。[结果] 2010—2020年粮食主产区整体效率水平呈“小幅下降—快速上升—波动增长”的阶段趋势,整体效率水平偏低,仍具有较大提升空间。分阶段来看,生产阶段效率水平始终高于消费阶段,且两阶段效率水平差距有进一步增大的态势;粮食主产区耕地利用效率提升受两阶段效率水平共同作用的影响,生产阶段是效率提升的主要动力,阻力来自于消费阶段效率。分区域来看,松花江流域>长江流域>黄河流域的耕地利用效率,区域不均衡性显著。从空间上来看,整体效率、生产阶段效率高值区呈东北—西南空间分布,并逐渐形成“高—高”集聚和“低—低”集聚的空间格局,消费阶段效率高值区呈离散化分布格局,并未呈现出向提升方向收敛的发展态势。整体、生产阶段和消费阶段的外部影响因素不尽相同,涉及社会经济发展水平、城乡发展水平、科技水平及农业基础设施建设,同时不同因素对不同区域的整体及各子阶段耕地利用效率作用强度及作用方向也存在显著差异。[结论] 未来粮食主产区不但要探索区域差异化耕地利用路径,加强各地级市间合作,更要在提升生产阶段效率的同时,重点关注各地级市消费阶段效率提升收敛速度以及与生产阶段效率差距之间的协调。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: [Objective] The main grain producing area have an important strategic position in achieving stable grain production and supply, and improving the cultivated land utilization efficiency in the main grain producing area is an institutional arrangement to guarantee grain security and achieve sustainable agricultural development. [Methods] The innovative two-stage dynamic network DEA model is used to measure the cultivated land utilization efficiency of 179 prefecture-level cities in the main grain producing area from 2010 to 2020, and its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics are analyzed by ArcGIS visualization technology and kernel density estimation, based on which a Tobit model is constructed to explore the factors influencing of cultivated land utilization efficiency. [Results] From 2010 to 2020, the overall efficiency level of the main grain producing area shows a trend of “small decline - rapid rise - fluctuating growth”, and the overall efficiency level is low and still has much room for improvement.By stage, the efficiency level of the production stage is always higher than that of the consumption stage, and the gap between the efficiency levels of the two stages has a tendency to further increase; the improvement of cultivated land utilization efficiency in the main grain producing area is influenced by the combined effect of the efficiency levels of the two stages, with the production stage being the main driver of efficiency improvement and the resistance coming from the efficiency of the consumption stage. By region, Northeast > Middle and Lower reaches of Yangtze River > Yellow and Huaihai regions in terms of cultivated land utilization efficiency, with significant regional imbalance. From the spatial point of view, the overall efficiency and production stage efficiency high value areas are spatially distributed from northeast to southwest, and gradually form a spatial pattern of “high-high” clustering and “low-low” clustering, while the consumption stage efficiency high value areas show a discrete distribution pattern and do not show the development trend of convergence in the direction of upgrading.The external influencing factors of the overall, production and consumption stages are different, involving the level of socio-economic development, urban and rural development, science and technology and agricultural infrastructures, and there are significant differences in the intensity and direction of different factors on the overall and sub-stages of arable land use efficiency in different regions. [Conclusion] Based on this, this paper proposes that in the future, the main grain producing area should not only explore regional differentiated arable land use paths and strengthen cooperation among prefectures, but also focus on the coordination between the convergence rate of the efficiency improvement in the consumption stage and the efficiency gap between the production stage and the consumption stage in each prefecture while improving the efficiency in the production stage.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-28
  • 最后修改日期:2023-09-02
  • 录用日期:2023-09-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-11-06
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