基于过程降雨的红层丘陵低山区滑坡灾害 气象预警阈值研究
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中国地质科学院探矿工艺研究所

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Research on Meteorological Warning Threshold of Regional Landslide Disaster Based on Process Rainfall
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    摘要:

    [目的]降雨是诱发区域性滑坡灾害的重要因素,研究不同历时降雨强度与区域滑坡灾害的关系。[方法]本文收集了研究区近10年348个雨量站的逐小时降雨数据和231处近10年已发生灾情、险情滑坡事件的时间及位置,基于平均降雨强度(I)—降雨历时(D)模型,分地貌单元,提出了不同降雨历时的临界降雨预警阈值和分级预警阈值。[结果]研究表明:研究区丘陵地貌区不同前期降雨条件下1h、3h、6h、12h、24h、48h平均雨强的红色预警阈值依次为29.774 mm、18.579 mm、14.416 mm、11.186 mm、8.679 mm、6.734 mm;低山地貌区不同前期降雨条件下1h、3h、6h、12h、24h、48h平均雨强的红色预警阈值依次为28.849 mm、15.542 mm、10.520 mm、7.121 mm、4.820 mm、3.263 mm。[结论]在24h前期降雨条件下,低山区对降雨的敏感性明显比丘陵区高,具体表现为低山区1h、3h、6h、12h、24h的临界预警阈值明显比丘陵区更低,但随着降雨历时进一步延长,低山区和丘陵区域临界预警阈值趋于相近。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Rainfall is an important factor inducing regional landslide disasters. In order to study the relationship between different durations of rainfall intensity and regional landslide disasters.[Methods]this article collected hourly rainfall data from 348 rainfall stations in the study area over the past 10 years, as well as the time and location of 231 disaster and dangerous landslide events that have occurred in the past 10 years. Based on the average rainfall intensity (I) - rainfall duration (D) model, it was divided into geomorphic units, Proposed critical rainfall warning thresholds and graded warning thresholds for different rainfall durations.[Results] The research shows that the red warning thresholds for the average rainfall intensity at 1 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours, and 48 hours under different early rainfall conditions in the hilly terrain area of the study area are 29.774 mm, 18.579 mm, 14.416 mm, 11.186 mm, 8.679 mm, and 6.734 mm, respectively; The red warning thresholds for the average rainfall intensity at 1 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours, and 48 hours under different early rainfall conditions in low mountain terrain areas are 28.849 mm, 15.542 mm, 10.520 mm, 7.121 mm, 4.820 mm, and 3.263 mm, respectively.[Conclusion] Under the condition of rainfall in the early 24h period, the sensitivity of low mountainous area to rainfall is significantly higher than that of hilly area, and the critical warning thresholds of 1h, 3h, 6h, 12h and 24h in low mountainous area are significantly lower than those in hilly area. However, with the further extension of rainfall duration, the critical warning thresholds of low mountainous area and hilly area tend to be similar.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-08-02
  • 最后修改日期:2023-10-10
  • 录用日期:2023-10-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-11-02
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