京津冀农业碳减排优化路径研究
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1.北京农学院;2.北京化工大学

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北京农学院青年教师科研创新能力提升计划“基于碳时空分异格局的京津冀低碳农业发展绩效评价体系研究”


Research on the spatiotemporal differentiation pattern and emission reduction optimization path of carbon emissions in the Jingjinji region
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"Research on the Performance Evaluation System of Low-carbon Agriculture Development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on the Spatial and Temporal Differentiation Pattern of Carbon Research" of Young Teachers of Beijing University of Agriculture

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    摘要:

    [目的]双碳目标的提出对我国农业发展提出了更高的要求,本研究以京津冀地区为研究对象,根据农业碳排放情况,将京津冀地区划分为六大农业区,并相应提出减排优化路径,旨在为京津冀地区低碳农业发展提供政策建议; ②[方法] 本研究根据IPCC指南测算农业碳排放量,并在此基础上采用趋势分析法研究京津冀地区农业碳排放线性变化规律,采用Arcgis断点分析法和核密度法分析京津冀六大农业区的空间演进趋势;③[结果] 研究发现,从时间上看,京津冀农业碳排放量和碳排放强度整体呈下降趋势,尤其是碳排放强度,自2005年开始快速下降。与全国相比,虽然农业碳排放总量占比小,但是碳排放强度高于全国水平,其中坝上农业区和冀南农业区的碳排放水平最高。从空间上看,远离京津的坝上农业区北部,冀中原农业区和冀南农业区部分县域碳排放强度较高,而京津近郊农业区以及与其相邻的坝上农业区南部则保持轻低度排放状态。此外,根据核密度分析的结果,六大农业区整体碳排放强度在降低,其中京津近郊农业区和冀中平原农业区碳排放强度内部差异化程度较大;④[结论] 根据研究结果,从农业定位、资源共享、减碳增汇以及跨行业合作四个方面提出京津冀地区碳减排优化路径。

    Abstract:

    [Purpose] The proposal of the dual carbon target has put forward higher requirements for the development of agriculture in China. This study takes the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region as the research object, divides the region into six major agricultural regions based on agricultural carbon emissions, and proposes corresponding emission reduction optimization paths, aiming to provide policy recommendations for the development of low-carbon agriculture in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region Method: This study calculated agricultural carbon emissions based on the IPCC guidelines, and used trend analysis to study the linear changes in agricultural carbon emissions in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region. ArcGIS breakpoint analysis and kernel density method were used to analyze the spatial evolution trends of the six major agricultural regions in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region The study found that, in terms of time, the overall carbon emissions and carbon intensity of agriculture in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region have shown a downward trend, especially the carbon emission intensity, which has been rapidly decreasing since 2005. Compared with the whole country, although the proportion of total agricultural carbon emissions is small, the carbon emission intensity is higher than the national level, with the highest carbon emission levels in the Bashang Agricultural Zone and the Jinan Agricultural Zone. From a spatial perspective, the northern part of the Bashang Agricultural Area, far from Beijing and Tianjin, as well as some counties in the Central Plains and Southern Hebei Agricultural Areas, have higher carbon emission intensity. However, the suburban agricultural area of Beijing and Tianjin, as well as the southern part of the adjacent Bashang Agricultural Area, maintain a light and low emission state. In addition, according to the results of nuclear density analysis, the overall carbon emission intensity of the six major agricultural regions is decreasing, with a greater degree of internal differentiation in carbon emission intensity between the Beijing Tianjin suburban agricultural region and the Hebei Central Plain agricultural region Conclusion: Based on the research results, an optimization path for carbon reduction in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is proposed from four aspects: agricultural positioning, resource sharing, carbon reduction and sink enhancement, and cross industry cooperation.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-08-18
  • 最后修改日期:2024-02-01
  • 录用日期:2024-02-02
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