青海省农牧业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应研究
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1.青海民族大学;2.青海民族大学研究生院

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国家自然科学基金项目(42061033);2023年度青海省“揭榜挂帅”重大社科项目(JB2301);青海省省级哲学社会科学重点项目(22ZD001);青海民族大学研究阐释中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会精神专项课题(ESDYJ02);青海民族大学2022年度校级规划重点“尖兵”项目(2022GH02);2023年青海民族大学双碳专项科研项目(CPCN202307)


Driving factors and decoupling effect of carbon emission from agriculture and animal husbandry: an empirical study of Qinghai Province
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    摘要:

    [目的]明确青海省农牧业碳排放特征及驱动因素,为青海省科学有序推进农牧业绿色低碳发展提供理论与数据支撑。[方法]从农用物资消耗、畜禽养殖和作物生长三个方面测算青海省2000—2021年农牧业碳排放,在此基础上运用LMDI和Tapio脱钩模型探讨农牧业碳排放的驱动因素及脱钩状态,并预测2022—2035年农牧业碳排放的未来趋势。[结果]①研究期内,青海省农牧业碳排放呈波动上升趋势,年均增长率为1.61%,畜禽养殖过程中的肠道发酵和粪便管理是青海省农牧业碳排放的主要来源,年均占比94.94%。②农业经济发展水平效应和农业结构效应促进青海省农牧业碳排放的增加,年均贡献率为39.40%和16.53%;农业生产技术效应和农业劳动力规模效应抑制青海省农牧业碳排放的增加,年均贡献率为-37.45%和-6.63%。③整体来看,青海省农牧业碳排放与农牧业经济增长的脱钩状态为弱脱钩,农业生产技术和农业劳动力规模对青海省农牧业碳排放为弱脱钩努力,农业结构无脱钩努力。④2022—2035年青海省农牧业碳排放量呈增长趋势,年均增长率为1.23%,较2000-2021年下降0.38%。[结论]青海省应增强农田土壤固碳能力,降低畜禽产品肠道甲烷排放强度,强化农牧业减排固碳科技引领,培养农牧业高素质人才,实现农牧业低碳发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective]This study aims to analyze the carbon emission characteristics and driving factors of agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province, and to provide theoretical and empirical evidence for Qinghai government on how to promote scientifically and orderly the green and low-carbon development of agriculture and animal husbandry.[Methods] Carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province during 2000 to 2021 are calculated from consumption of agricultural materials, livestock and poultry breeding, and crop growth. The methods of LMDI and Tapio decoupling models are used to examine the driving factors and decoupling state of carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry, and the future development tendency from 2022 to 2035 is predicted.[Results]①Carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province shows a fluctuating upward trend during 2000 to 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 1.61%. Intestinal fermentation and manure management during livestock and poultry breeding are the main sources of carbon emissions, accounting for 94.94% per year.②The effect of the level of agricultural economic development and agricultural structure can increase the carbon emissions, with the annual contribution rates of 39.40% and 16.53%; The effect of agricultural production technology and agricultural labor force can inhibit the carbon emissions , with the annual contribution rates of -37.45% and -6.63%.③On the whole, the decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic growth of agricultural and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province is in weak decoupling. Agricultural production technology and agricultural labor force scale have weak decoupling efforts, while agricultural structure has no decoupling efforts.④From 2022 to 2035, the carbon emissions from agriculture and animal husbandry shows an increasing trend, with an average annual growth rate of 1.23%, and 0.38% lower than that from 2000 to 2021.[Conclusion]: This study contributes to call the attention of Qinghai government and relevant authorities to achieve low-carbon development in agriculture and animal husbandry. Some useful suggestions are put forward as follows: enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of farmland soil, reduce the intensity of intestinal methane emissions from livestock and poultry products, strengthen the leadership of carbon reduction and fixation technology in agriculture and animal husbandry, cultivate high-quality talents in agriculture and animal husbandry.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-09-28
  • 最后修改日期:2023-12-13
  • 录用日期:2023-12-16
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