青岛市区域碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素研究
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山东科技大学测绘与空间信息学院

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F301.2 X32

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Study on temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of regional carbon emission in Qingdao
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    摘要:

    [目的]分析青岛市区域碳排放时空演变及影响因素,对青岛市的生态保护和高质量发展具有重要意义。[方法]基于青岛市2000—2020年的土地利用数据、夜间灯光数据、社会经济数据等,对青岛市土地利用碳排放进行核算,通过构建碳排放与夜间灯光值的拟合模型,揭示青岛市不同用地类型的碳排放空间分布差异和变化趋势,通过Tapio脱钩模型分析了青岛市碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩状态,并利用LMDI模型分析土地利用碳排放各影响因素的贡献程度。[结果]①2000—2020年青岛市土地利用净碳排放量总体呈增长态势,从2000年1309.64万吨增长到2020年3648.20万吨,增长了近1.79倍。②青岛市碳排放总量整体呈现“中间高,四周低”的空间分布格局,工业能耗是建设用地最主要的碳排放来源,高碳排放区域主要集中在胶州湾区域;③青岛市经济发展和碳排放的关系经历了从“扩张连结—弱脱钩—强脱钩”状态的转变;④促进青岛市碳排放增长的因素为人口规模和经济效应,抑制青岛市碳排放增长的因素为能源结构和能源强度。[结论]未来需要进一步调整产业结构,加快发展低碳经济,通过创新技术、调整能源结构等措施,从源头上减少碳排放。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Analyzing the spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions in Qingdao City is of great significance for ecological protection and high-quality development.[Methods] Based on the land use data, nighttime light data, and social and economic data of Qingdao city from 2000 to 2020, carbon emissions from land use were calculated. By constructing a fitting model between carbon emissions and nighttime light values, the spatial distribution difference and trend of carbon emissions of different land use types in Qingdao city were revealed. The decoupling status between carbon emissions and economic development in Qingdao city was analyzed through the Tapio decoupling model. The contribution degree of various influencing factors of land use carbon emissions was analyzed by using Kaya decomposition and LMDI models. [Results] ①The net carbon emissions from land use in Qingdao city generally showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020. From 13,096,400 tons in 2000 to 36.4820 million tons in 2020, an increase of nearly 1.79 times;②The overall carbon emissions in Qingdao city presented a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the middle and low around", and industrial energy consumption was the main source of carbon emissions from construction land, with high carbon emission areas mainly concentrated in the Jiaozhou Bay area;③The relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in Qingdao city has undergone a transition from "expansion link to weak decoupling to strong decoupling";④The factors that promote the growth of carbon emissions in Qingdao are population size and economic effect, and the factors that inhibit the growth of carbon emissions in Qingdao are energy structure and energy intensity. [Conclusion] In the future, it is necessary to further adjust the industrial structure, accelerate the development of a low-carbon economy, and reduce carbon emissions from the source through measures such as technological innovation and energy structure adjustment.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-16
  • 最后修改日期:2024-01-27
  • 录用日期:2024-02-02
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