基于生态位视角的陕西省区域创新生态系统安全测度及预警
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X321;F127

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陕西省社会科学资助项目“基于生态位视角的陕西区域创新生态系统安全测度及预警研究”(2020D044);国家社会科学基金一般项目“新发展阶段黄河流域生态安全评价、预警及实现机制研究”(21BJY169)


Security Measurement and Early Warning of Regional Innovation Ecosystem in Shaanxi Province from Ecological Niche Perspective
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    摘要:

    [目的] 分析陕西省区域创新生态系统安全发展状况并对其安全演变趋势进行预警, 为实现陕西省区域创新生态系统的经济可持续的高质量发展提供科学依据。[方法] 基于生态位视角构建了一个包含开放性、 生长性、 协同性和可持续性4 个维度的区域创新生态系统安全测度指标体系, 利用生态位适宜度模型对2011—2020 年陕西省区域创新生态系统安全状况进行了测度分析, 并利用 BP 神经网络模型预测2021—2024 年陕西省区域创新生态系统安全警情演变趋势。[结果] ①陕西省区域创新生态系统安全水平在2011—2020 年间总体呈现出稳定上升的态势, 表明区域创新发展具有良好的基础和潜力。② 陕西省区域创新生态系统安全警情在2021—2024 年间将继续保持向好的趋势, 但仍呈南北低、 中部高的分布特征。[结论] 陕西省区域创新生态系统安全状况整体呈现良好的演变趋势, 但各地级市的创新生态系统安全存在明显的两极分化现象。因此仍需采取相关措施进一步缩小其区域间的差距从而促进陕西省区域创新生态系统的健康发展。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Developing condition and early warning research was studied with regard to the security of Shaanxi regional innovation ecosystem in order to provide a theoretical basis for the safe development of Shaanxi regional innovation ecosystem. [Methods] A security measurement index system of the regional innovation ecosystem was constructed based on the niche perspective that included the four dimensions of openness, growth, synergy, and sustainability. The security status of the regional innovation ecosystem in Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2020 was measured and analyzed by using a niche suitability model. The BP neural network model was used to predict the evolution trend of the regional innovation ecosystem security alarm in Shaanxi Province from 2021 to 2024. [Results] ① The security status of the regional innovation ecosystem in Shaanxi Province showed a steady increase during 2011—2020, indicating that regional innovation development had a good foundation and potential. ② The security status of the regional innovation ecosystem in Shaanxi Province would continue to improve from 2021 to 2024, but the status would still be lower in the north and south and higher in the central part of the province. [Conclusion] The security status of regional innovation ecosystem in Shaanxi Province shows a good trend of evolution, but the innovation ecosystem security of prefecture-level cities has obvious polarization. Therefore, it is still necessary to take relevant measures to further narrow the gap between regions so as to promote the healthy development of Shaanxi regional innovation ecosystem.

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吴艳霞,蒋明月,杨帅帅.基于生态位视角的陕西省区域创新生态系统安全测度及预警[J].水土保持通报,2024,44(1):86-96

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-02
  • 最后修改日期:2023-08-11
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-26