基于粮食安全视角的喀什地区耕地“非粮化”影响因素及监管对策研究
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F301.21

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自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目“基于粮食安全视角的耕地'非粮化’时空演变及其驱动机制研究”(XJEDU2022P039)


Influencing Factors and Regulatory Countermeasures of “Non-grain Conservation” Cultivated Land in Kashgar Region Based on Perspective of Food Security
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    摘要:

    [目的] 基于粮食安全的视角,分析喀什地区的耕地“非粮化”特征、耕地供需盈亏情况以及耕地“非粮化”的影响因素,并提出耕地“非粮化”的监管对策建议。[方法] 基于实地调查及统计数据,分析喀什地区1995—2020年耕地“非粮化”时空演变特征,运用粮食供需平衡法分析喀什地区的耕地供需盈亏情况以及耕地“非粮化”的安全区间,构建耕地“非粮化”影响因素指标体系,使用二元Logistic回归模型分析各影响因素对耕地“非粮化”的影响程度。[结果] ①1995—2020年,喀什地区的耕地“非粮化”率及“非粮化”面积的时空演变趋势基本一致,在1995—2014年呈波动中上升的趋势,2014年后呈波动中下降的趋势,空间演变特征呈现东北高,西南西北低的分布格局。 ②在研究期内,只有喀什市长期处于耕地供给赤字状态,塔县于2010年处于耕地供给赤字状态,其余县市均处于耕地供给盈余状态;喀什市的耕地“非粮化”率已严重超过安全区间,喀什地区的其余区域均处于安全区间范围内。 ③家庭农业劳动力、农户兼业化程度、农资价格变化、种粮补贴政策效果对耕地“非粮化”的影响显著,其余影响因素对耕地“非粮化”的影响不显著。[结论] 喀什地区耕地“非粮化”水平较高,耕地供给不平衡,应完善区域耕地保护政策,制定差别化的管理策略,遏制耕地“非粮化”现象继续蔓延,实现粮食安全与耕地安全的可持续发展目标。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The characteristics of “non-grain conservation” farmland, and the supply and demand situation of farmland and the influencing factors of “non-grain conservation” farmland in Kashgar region were determined, in order to propose regulatory countermeasures and suggestions. The study was conducted from the perspective of food security. [Methods] The spatial-temporal characteristics of “non-grain conservation” cultivated land were determined. The profit and loss of cultivated land supply and demand and the safe interval of“non-grain conservation” cultivated land in Kashgar region were determined from 1995 to 2020 based on field investigation and statistical data using the grain supply and demand balance method. An indicator system for the influencing factors of “non-grain conservation” farmland was constructed, and a binary Logistic regression model was used to analyze the degree of influence of each influencing factor on “non-grain conservation” farmland. [Results] ① From 1995 to 2020, the spatial-temporal evolution trend of the “non-grain conservation” rate and “non-grain conservation” region of cultivated land in Kashgar region was almost the same, and exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 1995 to 2014, and a fluctuating downward trend after 2014. The spatial evolution characteristics showed a distribution pattern of higher in the northeast, and lower in the southwest and northwest. ② During the study period, only Kashgar City was in a long-term deficit of cultivated land supply. Ta County experienced a deficit of cultivated land supply in 2010, and other counties and cities experienced a surplus of cultivated land supply. The “non-grain conversion” rate of cultivated land in Kashgar City had seriously exceeded the safe range, and the rest of the Kashgar region was within the safe range. ③ The influence of family agricultural labor force, the degree of concurrent employment of farmers, the change of agricultural resource price, and the effect of grain subsidy policy on “non-grain conservation” cultivated land was significant, while the other influencing factors had no significant influence on “non-grain conservation” cultivated land. [Conclusion] The level of “non-grain conservation” farmland in the Kashgar region was high, and the supply of farmland was unbalanced. It will be necessary to improve the protection policy of regional farmland, formulate differentiated management strategies, and curb the spread of “non-grain conservation” farmland, therefore to realize the sustainable development goal of food security and farmland security.

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张文政,阿也提古丽·斯迪克.基于粮食安全视角的喀什地区耕地“非粮化”影响因素及监管对策研究[J].水土保持通报,2024,44(3):93-103

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  • 收稿日期:2023-08-17
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-24
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-08-21