[Objective] The spatial differentiation characteristics of non-agriculture and non-grain cultivated land in Yanshan County, Shangrao City, Jiangxi Province, and their driving mechanism were determined, and the land use change pattern for early warning was simulated, in order to provide a scientific basis and decision-making support for the strict implementation of cultivated land use control measures. [Methods] Based on the land use data of Yanshan County in 2017 and 2021, the spatial econometric model was used to identify the driving mechanism of farmland non-agriculture and non-grain conversion, and the cultivated land change was predicted by the PLUS model, and the warning level was further defined according to the forecast results. [Results] ① The spatial differentiation characteristics of non-agriculture and non-grain cultivated land in Yanshan County was obvious. The areas with high values of the overall rate of cultivated land change and the rate change of non-grain cultivated land were clustered in the valley plains in the north of the county and in Wuyi Mountains in the south. The low-value areas were located on the east and west sides of the county. The distribution of the high-value areas of rate of change of non-agriculture cultivated land was more fragmented, and the low-value areas were relatively continuous. ② Cultivated land utilization grade and per capita cultivated land area were important factors inhibiting the non-agriculture of cultivated land. Urban-rural gradient and road density were positively correlated with the rate of non-agriculture and non-grain. Per capita cultivated land area and cultivated land reserve resources had a positive effect on the rate of non-agriculture. ③ The results of the multi-scenario simulation showed that the expansion of construction land led to a significant reduction in the amount of cultivated land in the natural development scenario. The contiguity of cultivated land increased in the cultivated land control scenario. There was a situation in which forested land squeezed the cultivated land resources in the ecological protection scenario. ④ Administrative villages with the moderate warning level for non-agriculture cultivated land were mainly clustered in townships in the southern part of the county, and the areas with high values of the warning level for non-grain cultivated land were generally concentrated in townships in the northern part of the county. [Conclusion] In the future, we should actively promote the construction of high-standard farmland, establish a compensation mechanism for cultivated land protection, improve the degree of land intensification and conservation in townships, carry out comprehensive land improvement in the entire region, improve the system of cultivated land transfer, and implement the control measures for the use of cultivated land with a balance between “occupation and compensation” and “balance between import and export”.