[Objective] The spatio-temporal evolution and spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Northern China was analysed, in order to provide reference for the future strategic layout of food security development in this ecotone in Northern China. [Methods] The status of cultivated land resources in the northern agro-pastoral ecotone was analysed between 2000 and 2023 using the modified cultivated land pressure index mode. Thereafter, the study area was subdivided, and the spatiotemporal development trend of cultivated land pressure was analysed. The future change in cultivated land pressure was calculated using the prediction model, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were proposed. [Results] ① In general, the cultivated land pressure in the northern agro-pastoral ecotone increased, showing a “W” shape change in time series. The spatial pattern showed an “overall” alert and local stable situation, and the pressure centre of gravity migrated towards the southwest with time. ② The heterogeneity of regional cultivated land pressure showed a gradual trend of differentiation. Further, the heterogeneity was influenced by the development of regional functions and industrial structure and showed a gradual but evident trend in the time pattern. The spatial pattern distribution showed that the desertification area along the Great Wall was stable for a long time, the loess hilly gully area was gradually rising, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei water conservation area was gently declining. In the next 7 years, the pressure of cultivated land in the northern agricultural and pastoral ecotone will show an overall increase, posing a certain threat to food security and regional development, which needs to be protected and paid attention to by relevant departments. [Conclusion] The cultivated land pressure in the northern agro-pastoral ecotone zone is on the rise in general, and the regional differences are gradually obvious. In the future, it is necessary to improve the land fertility and environmental political ability of the whole cultivated land, and carry out the compensation mechanism of cross-regional cultivated land protection.