基于参数最优地理探测器的粤东北耕地非农化特征与影响因素研究
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中山大学

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F301.2

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国家自然科学基金面上项目(42171193):面向城乡融合的珠三角地区都市农业地域系统功能演化、空间重组及环境效应研究,2022.01-2025.12;教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(23JZD008):中国式乡村现代化理论研究,2024.01-2026.12


Study on the Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Farmland Conversion to Non-Agricultural Uses in Northeastern Guangdong Province Based on Optimal Parameter Geographic Detector
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School of Geographic Science and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University

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National Natural Science Foundation of China (42171193): Research on the functional evolution, spatial reorganization and environmental effects of urban agricultural regional system in the Pearl River Delta region towards urban-rural integration, 2022.01-2025.12;Major Research Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education (23JZD008): Research on the Theory of Chinese Rural Modernization, 2024.01-2026.12

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    摘要:

    [目的]耕地非农化对粮食安全构成威胁,但目前对于丘陵山区耕地非农化特征及成因研究较少,论文以粤东北为例,探究丘陵山区耕地非农化格局及影响机制,为该地区防治耕地非农化提供理论指导。[方法]基于粤东北1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年四期土地利用影像提取非农化信息,运用空间自相关分析和参数最优地理探测器等方法探究耕地非农化时空分布与影响因素。[结果](1)1990—2020年,粤东北耕地非农化呈“平稳发展到骤降”的变化趋势,累计非农化面积228 537.63hm2,非农化率25.31%,林地和建设用地是主要的非农化类型。(2)垂直方向上,海拔1000m以上和坡度25~35°的耕地更容易非农化;水平方向上,与建设用地距离50m以内和与河流距离1000~1500m的耕地更容易非农化。(3)粤东北耕地非农化存在显著的正向集聚,Molan’s I由0.371逐渐下降至0.255,“高—高”聚类和“低—低”聚类的变化主导着耕地非农化率空间自相关格局的演变。(4)农业人口和耕地破碎度始终对耕地非农化空间分布的解释力较强,近10年来社会经济因素对于非农化的解释力减弱。多因素特别是农业因素和社会经济因素的交互能够进一步增加对耕地非农化的解释力。[结论]近30年来,粤东北耕地非农化面积和空间集聚呈下降趋势,但农业人口和耕地破碎化对于非农化的影响进一步增强。应合理控制城镇扩张速度、整合破碎耕地、引入小型农机改善生产条件,同时通过普及农村电子商务等方式鼓励农民种植,以应对耕地非农化问题。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The conversion of farmland to non-agricultural uses poses a threat to food security. However, there is currently few research on the characteristics and causes of farmland conversion in hilly areas. This study takes northeastern Guangdong Province (NGP) as an example to explore the patterns and mechanisms of farmland conversion in hilly regions, providing theoretical guidance for preventing farmland conversion. [Methods] Using land use images from NGP in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, the information on farmland conversion was extracted. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and the optimal parameter geographic detector method were employed to investigate the spatial-temporal distribution and influencing factors of farmland conversion. [Results] (1) From 1990 to 2020, cropland non-agriculturalization in NGP exhibited a trend of "steady development followed by a sharp decline," with a cumulative non-agriculturalized area of 228,537.63 hectares and a non-agriculturalization rate of 25.31%. Forest land and construction land were the primary types of non-agriculturalization. (2) Vertically, cropland above 1000 meters in elevation and with a slope of 25-35° is more prone to non-agriculturalization; horizontally, cropland within 50 meters of construction land and 1000-1500 meters from rivers is more likely to undergo non-agriculturalization. (3) Cropland non-agriculturalization in NGP exhibits significant positive clustering, with Molan’s I gradually decreasing from 0.371 to 0.255. The changes in "high-high" clustering and "low-low" clustering dominated the evolution of the spatial autocorrelation pattern of cropland non-agriculturalization rates. (4) Agricultural population and cropland fragmentation consistently had strong explanatory power for the spatial distribution of cropland non-agriculturalization, while the explanatory power of socio-economic factors for non-agriculturalization has weakened over the past decade. The interaction of multiple factors, especially agricultural and socio-economic factors, can further enhance the explanatory power for cropland non-agriculturalization. [Conclusion] Over the past 30 years, the area and spatial clustering of farmland conversion in NGP have declined. However, the impact of agricultural population and farmland fragmentation on farmland conversion has intensified. It is suggested to reasonably control the speed of urban expansion, consolidate fragmented farmland, introduce small-scale agricultural machinery to improve farming conditions, and encourage farmers to cultivate by promoting rural e-commerce, in order to address the issue of farmland non-agriculturalization.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-07
  • 最后修改日期:2024-08-23
  • 录用日期:2024-08-24
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