基于全连接神经网络的北流市 崩塌滑坡风险评价
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1.广西壮族自治区地质环境监测站;2.成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室

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P694

基金项目:

四川省自然科学基金项目(2024NSFSC0071)


Research on landslide risk assessment of Beiliu City based on a fully connected neural network method
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Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province(2024NSFSC0071)

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    摘要:

    [目的]北流市位于广西岩溶地区,因降雨侵蚀和径流作用,极易发生崩塌滑坡灾害,严重威胁人民生命财产安全。因此,建立适用于广西岩溶地区的崩塌滑坡风险评价体系,为北流市崩塌滑坡的早期预警与防灾减灾提供科学依据。[方法]以北流市为研究区,构建崩塌滑坡数据库,采用斜坡单元为评价基础,系统收集并分析多源数据,选取包括地下水类型、径流强度指数在内的关键评价指标,利用全连接神经网络模型开展崩塌滑坡易发性评价。鉴于岩溶地区易受降雨和岩溶侵蚀的影响,研究引入土壤侵蚀模数进行危险性评价,最后结合承灾体易损性,构建北流市崩塌滑坡风险评价模型。[结果]风险评价结果表明,高和极高风险区的面积为252.22km2,占北流市总面积的10.27%。这些高风险区主要分布在隆盛镇、新丰镇、平政镇和六靖镇一带,属于侵蚀剥蚀丘陵和构造侵蚀低山地区,岩土体松散,土壤侵蚀模数较大、人口密度高、建筑物集中,极易受到崩塌滑坡威胁,风险等级高。[结论]经过ROC曲线和野外调查验证,北流市崩塌滑坡易发性评价精度达0.9664,风险评价准确率为89.3%。验证结果表明,所构建的模型具有较高的精度和实际适用性,评价结果与实际情况相符,可为北流市崩塌滑坡的早期预警与防灾减灾提供科学依据。此外,该评估体系的成功应用也为其他岩溶地区提供了有效的风险评估方法和实践经验。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] Beiliu City, located in the karst region of Guangxi, is highly susceptible to collapse and landslide hazards due to rainfall erosion and runoff, posing severe threats to life and property. Therefore, it is crucial to establish a collapse and landslide risk assessment system tailored to the karst areas of Guangxi to provide a scientific basis for early warning and disaster prevention in Beiliu City. [Methods] Beiliu City was selected as the study area, and a collapse and landslide database was constructed. Using slope units as the evaluation foundation, multi-source data were systematically collected and analyzed. Key evaluation indicators, including groundwater type and runoff intensity index, were selected, and a fully connected neural network model was employed to evaluate the susceptibility to collapse and landslide hazards. Considering the region's vulnerability to rainfall and karst erosion, the study introduced the soil erosion modulus for hazard assessment, and combined it with the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies to construct a risk assessment model for Beiliu City. [Results] The results of the risk assessment indicated that the areas of high and very high risk covered 252.22 km2, accounting for 10.27% of Beiliu City's total area. These high-risk zones are primarily distributed in Longsheng Town, Xinfeng Town, Pingzheng Town, and Liujing Town, characterized by eroded and denuded hills and tectonic erosion low mountains. The loose rock-soil structure, high soil erosion modulus, dense population, and concentrated buildings make these areas highly vulnerable to collapse and landslide threats. [Conclusion] The ROC curve and field investigation validation demonstrated that the collapse and landslide susceptibility model for Beiliu City achieved a precision of 0.9664, with a risk assessment accuracy of 89.3%. These results confirm that the constructed model has high accuracy and practical applicability, aligning well with the actual situation. It provides a valuable scientific basis for early warning and disaster prevention in Beiliu City. Moreover, the successful application of this assessment system offers an effective risk evaluation method and practical experience for other karst regions.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-20
  • 最后修改日期:2024-10-09
  • 录用日期:2024-10-09
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