河北地质大学
S157.1，TP79，X87
河北省科技厅中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(自由探索类基础研究)（236Z4201G），河北地质大学博士科研启动基金（BQ2024034）
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[目的]探究江苏省近十年植被覆盖度（fractional vegetation cover，FVC）的时空变化趋势及其驱动力，为江苏省全局掌握植被覆盖情况，宏观调控相关政策提供参考。[方法]选取2013-2022年全年的Landsat8数据作为数据源，基于GEE云计算平台，通过最大值合成江苏省逐年30m分辨率的NDVI影像，应用像元二分模型对江苏省2013—2022年的植被覆盖度进行估测，通过Sen趋势分析、Mann-Kendall显著性检验、变异系数、Hurst指数等方法，从多个方面分析其时空变化的趋势以及特征，并以FVC为因变量、夜间灯光数据为自变量构建一元线性回归模型，通过残差分析来量化FVC变化的驱动力，定量分析人类活动因子和气象因子对FVC变化的贡献率占比。[结果]2013-2022年，江苏省年均FVC为0.648，呈波动下降趋势，但仍然以极高和高FVC类型为主。FVC呈减少趋势的面积占比为51.85%，呈增加趋势的面积占比为45.91%；变异系数(coefficient of variation，CV)的平均值为0.16，整体波动幅度较低；Hurst指数的平均值为0.56，以弱持续性为主，弱反持续性次之，各类型整体呈现交错分布，退化与改善并存。人类活动对江苏省植被覆盖度变化的贡献度为正的区域占86.53%，气候变化对江苏省植被覆盖度变化的贡献率为正的区域占71.47%。[结论]近十年，江苏省整体植被覆盖良好，下降趋势逐渐平缓，苏北和苏中的植被覆盖度优于苏南，而苏北、苏中的植被退化情况要严重于苏南，变化的主要驱动力以气候变化和人类活动的共同作用为主，人类活动对FVC增加的贡献总体上比气候变化的贡献更大。
[Objective] This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal trends and driving forces of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in Jiangsu Province over the past decade, providing a reference for comprehensively understanding the vegetation coverage and macro-regulating related policies in Jiangsu Province. [Methods] Using the Landsat8 data from 2013 to 2022 as the data source, annual 30m resolution NDVI images of Jiangsu Province were synthesized based on the maximum value composite method on the GEE cloud computing platform. The pixel dichotomy model was applied to estimate the vegetation cover from 2013 to 2022. Various methods, including Sen’s slope analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test, coefficient of variation (CV), and Hurst index, were used to analyze the spatiotemporal trends and characteristics of the vegetation cover. Additionally, a univariate linear regression model was constructed with FVC as the dependent variable and nighttime light data as the independent variable. Residual analysis was employed to quantify the driving forces of FVC changes and to analyze the contributions of human activities and climatic factors to FVC changes. [Results] From 2013 to 2022, the annual average FVC in Jiangsu Province was 0.648, showing a fluctuating downward trend but still predominantly consisting of very high and high FVC types. Areas with a decreasing FVC trend accounted for 51.85%, while areas with an increasing trend accounted for 45.91%. The average CV was 0.16, indicating relatively low overall fluctuation. The average Hurst index was 0.56, primarily indicating weak persistence, followed by weak anti-persistence, with an overall interwoven distribution of different types, and coexistence of degradation and improvement. Human activities positively contributed to changes in vegetation cover in 86.53% of the areas, while climate change positively contributed to changes in 71.47% of the areas. [Conclusion] Over the past decade, the overall vegetation cover in Jiangsu Province has been good, with the declining trend gradually flattening out. The vegetation cover in northern and central Jiangsu is better than in southern Jiangsu, but the degradation in northern and central Jiangsu is more severe than in southern Jiangsu. The main driving forces of the changes are the combined effects of climate change and human activities, with human activities contributing more to the increase in FVC than climate change.
