基于矩阵判别法的上犹县崩岗危险性评价研究
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1.三峡大学;2.长江水利委员会长江科学院

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国家自然科学基金“不同降雨情景下赣南花岗岩区崩岗侵蚀易发性空间预测研究”(42107489);水利部重大科技项目“水土流失综合治理智能管理模型研发”(CKSD2022735/TB)


Study on Risk Evaluation of Benggang in Shangyou County Based on Matrix Discriminant Method
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    摘要:

    [目的]明确上犹县崩岗分布特征与规律,通过研究科学的研判方法,为崩岗治理优先级决策提供数据支撑与科学依据。[方法]以江西省上犹县为研究区,在全面调查崩岗及其危害特征的基础上,根据崩岗危险发生“三要素”原理,选择崩岗规模、发育状态等作为崩岗主体危险潜能指标,选择房屋、道路、耕园地等危害受体并结合危害距离作为受体程度指标,构建基于矩阵判别法的崩岗危险性评价指标体系,探讨基于矩阵判别法评价崩岗危险性和适用性和准确性。[结果]上犹县共有崩岗227个,其中已治理崩岗25个,未治理崩岗202个,发育状态以活跃型为多,规模以大型居多,形态类型以瓢形为主,崩岗危害对象以耕园地为主,危害距离以小于10 m为主;县内无、小、中、大、极大五个危险等级的崩岗占崩岗数量的比值分别为:47.5%、14.9%、15.8%、14.9%、6.9%,现场复核验证准确度达到80%。[结论]本研究所提出的矩阵判别法具有较好的适用性和准确性,且指标易获取,方法易操作。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] To clarify the distribution characteristics and laws of benggang in Shangyou County, and to provide data support and scientific basis for the priority decision-making of benggang governance by studying scientific research methods. [Methods] Shangyou County, Jiangxi Province was taken as the research area. Based on the comprehensive investigation of benggang and its hazard characteristics, according to the principle of " three elements " of benggang risk, the scale and development status of benggang were selected as the main risk potential indicators of the main body of benggang, and the hazard receptors such as houses, roads and farmland were selected, and combined with the hazard distance as the receptor degree index. The risk evaluation index system of benggang based on matrix discriminant method was constructed to explore the applicability and accuracy of matrix discrimination method to evaluate the benggang risk. [Results] There are 227 benggang in Shangyou County, of which 25 have been controlled and 202 have not been controlled. The development status is mostly active type, the scale is mostly large, the morphological type is mainly dipper type, the hazard object is mainly farmland, and the hazard distance is mainly less than 10 m. The ratio of the number of benggang in the five risk levels of no, small, medium, large, and great in the county to the number of benggang was 47.5 %, 14.9 %, 15.8 %, 14.9 %, and 6.9 %, respectively. The accuracy of on-site review verification reached 80 %.[Conclusion] The matrix discriminant method proposed in this study has good applicability and accuracy, and the indicators are easy to obtain and the method is easy to operate.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-08
  • 最后修改日期:2024-11-15
  • 录用日期:2024-11-18
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