[Objective] Based on the spatiotemporal dynamic process, it is of great significance to explore the evolution process of land use conflict and its formation and change mechanism, so as to promote the alleviation of regional land use conflict and optimize the allocation of regional land resource allocation. [Methods] A model for identifying land use conflicts, developed from landscape pattern perspective, was applied to diagnose the land use conflict situations across five periods (2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020) in Wuhu City. By integrating the Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model and the Optimal Parameters-Based Geographical Detector, a framework was established to understand the formation mechanisms of the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use conflicts, identifying the spatio-temporal dynamics and driving forces of land use conflicts in Wuhu City. The PLUS model was applied to conduct multi-scenario simulations and conflict mitigation analysis for land use in Wuhu City in 2030. [Results] (1) Over the study period, the level of land use conflicts in Wuhu City has fluctuated upward, with the spatial pattern predominantly displaying higher conflict density in the south and lower in the north, continuously expanding along the Yangtze River axis. Hotspots of local variation are concentrated in the urban-rural fringe areas and where agricultural and ecological spaces intersect. (2) Elevation, slope, distance to road, and distance to water systems are the primary factors influencing the formation of land use conflict patterns in Wuhu City, while GDP and population distribution play a relatively minor role in explaining land use conflict formation. (3) The pattern of land use conflicts is expected to persist under different scenarios; notably, scenarios focused on farmland conservation and ecological protection can effectively mitigate the emergence of land use conflicts. [Conclusion] The land use conflict in Wuhu City is constantly strengthening, with the impact of social development deepening. There is a need to strike a balance among agriculture, ecology, and economic development in management practices.