安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院
F 205；TP 79
都市圈跨界区域土地利用转型的格局、机理与效应--以南京与合肥 都市圈为例，安徽省自然科学基金面上项目(2208085MD86)；气候变化和人类活动影响下耕地系统健康演变机制与分区管护研究，安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题(2023CX091)；
School of Geography and Tourism,Anhui Normal University
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［目的］土地资源稀缺性和用途多样性导致土地利用冲突的产生并普遍存在。基于时空动态过程，探讨土地利用冲突的演变过程及其形成变化机制，对促进区域土地利用冲突缓解、优化区域土地资源配置具有重要意义。［方法］从景观格局视角构建土地利用冲突识别模型，诊断芜湖市2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年五期土地利用冲突状况，基于贝叶斯时空层次模型和最优化地理探测器构建土地利用冲突时空动态过程形成机制框架，识别芜湖市土地利用冲突时空动态过程及形成机制，结合PLUS模型对芜湖市2030年土地利用进行多情景模拟预测。［结果］（1）研究期内，芜湖市土地利用冲突水平呈现波动上升趋势，土地利用冲突空间格局主要呈现“南高北低，以长江为轴线不断扩展”，其局部变化热点分布集中于城乡交错区以及农业空间与生态空间交互区。（2）高程、坡度、距道路距离以及距水系距离等因素是芜湖市土地利用冲突格局形成的主要影响因素，而GDP和人口分布对于土地利用冲突形成的解释力度相对较小。（3）不同情景下土地利用冲突格局仍将延续前期变化，其中耕地保育和生态保护情景可以有效缓解土地利用冲突的形成，需在管理过程中维护农业、生态和经济发展之间的平衡。［结论］芜湖市土地利用冲突呈现不断强化态势，其中社会发展对其影响程度不断深化，未来仍需因地制宜强化国土空间用途管制，提升土地利用节约集约水平，实现高质量发展。
[Objective] Based on the spatiotemporal dynamic process, it is of great significance to explore the evolution process of land use conflict and its formation and change mechanism, so as to promote the alleviation of regional land use conflict and optimize the allocation of regional land resource allocation. [Methods] A model for identifying land use conflicts, developed from landscape pattern perspective, was applied to diagnose the land use conflict situations across five periods (2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020) in Wuhu City. By integrating the Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model and the Optimal Parameters-Based Geographical Detector, a framework was established to understand the formation mechanisms of the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use conflicts, identifying the spatio-temporal dynamics and driving forces of land use conflicts in Wuhu City. The PLUS model was applied to conduct multi-scenario simulations and conflict mitigation analysis for land use in Wuhu City in 2030. [Results] (1) Over the study period, the level of land use conflicts in Wuhu City has fluctuated upward, with the spatial pattern predominantly displaying higher conflict density in the south and lower in the north, continuously expanding along the Yangtze River axis. Hotspots of local variation are concentrated in the urban-rural fringe areas and where agricultural and ecological spaces intersect. (2) Elevation, slope, distance to road, and distance to water systems are the primary factors influencing the formation of land use conflict patterns in Wuhu City, while GDP and population distribution play a relatively minor role in explaining land use conflict formation. (3) The pattern of land use conflicts is expected to persist under different scenarios; notably, scenarios focused on farmland conservation and ecological protection can effectively mitigate the emergence of land use conflicts. [Conclusion] The land use conflict in Wuhu City is constantly strengthening, with the impact of social development deepening. There is a need to strike a balance among agriculture, ecology, and economic development in management practices.
