[Objective] To scientifically evaluate the spatio-temporal variation of agricultural carbon emissions and its main influencing factors in the Yellow River Basin, predict the future emission trend, and provide data support and decision-making reference for formulating agricultural carbon emission reduction policies and regional collaborative governance plans. [Methods] In this paper, the agricultural carbon emissions from 2001 to 2021 in nine provinces of the Yellow River Basin were selected as the research object, STIRPAT extended model was used to analyze the driving factors, and GM (1,1) model was used to forecast. [Results] There were significant differences in agricultural carbon emissions among provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin, and agricultural carbon emissions in major grain-producing areas were significantly higher than those in other provinces. Agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin first increased and then decreased over time, showing an overall "inverted U-shape". The quarter-on-quarter growth rate showed a fluctuating rise in the early stage, and then began to decline slowly after 2012 until a negative growth in 2017, indicating that policy intervention played an important role in agricultural carbon emission reduction. Among the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin, agricultural production efficiency, economic development level, urbanization level, agricultural land management scale and agricultural mechanization level are the main factors leading to the increase of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin. The energy intensity of agricultural machinery has a restraining effect on carbon emissions, and technological progress may offset part of the carbon emission reduction effect due to the "rebound effect". In the future 2022-2035, agricultural carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin may show a downward trend, but still maintain a high level, and agricultural carbon emission reduction pressure is still large. [Conclusion] The potential of agricultural carbon emission reduction in the Yellow River Basin has not been fully released, and agricultural carbon emission reduction should be further achieved by accelerating the application of new energy technologies, popularizing green and low-carbon production technologies, building a whole-chain management system of agricultural waste, promoting the optimization of agricultural structure and the innovation of the coupling model of planting and breeding, and building a collaborative development system of ecological agriculture and organic agriculture according to local conditions. At the same time, it is necessary to establish a dynamic balance mechanism between economic growth and emission reduction targets to avoid the risk of carbon emissions rebound caused by extensive development.