Abstract: [Objective] To clarify the temporal variation characteristics and driving factors of land use carbon emissions in China's main grain-producing areas, explore the evolution of future land use patterns and carbon emission trends, and provide references for promoting low-carbon sustainable development in these areas. [Methods] Based on multi-source data, the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method was used to calculate the carbon emissions from land use in China's main grain-producing areas from 2000 to 2023. The partial least squares (PLS) regression model and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition model were employed to investigate the main driving factors of carbon emissions from cultivated land and construction land. The patch-level land use simulation (PLUS) model and the gravity center model were applied to simulate and analyze future land use patterns and carbon emissions. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2023, carbon emissions in China's main grain-producing areas showed a rapid growth trend, with an overall increase of 225.46%, and the period from 2003 to 2011 marked the peak growth rate. The carbon sink increased by 31.96% overall, with its growth rate significantly lagging behind carbon emissions. At the provincial level, all provinces exhibited high or extremely high growth in carbon emissions, while carbon sinks showed slow or moderate growth. ② Under the three scenarios of food security, carbon emission reduction, and natural development, land use carbon emissions in 2035 are projected to increase by 27.82%, 20.01%, and 44.31%, respectively, compared to 2023. ③ Future changes in land use patterns can be categorized into three types: dynamic adjustment type in Hunan, Hebei, and Anhui provinces; locally sensitive type in Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Heilongjiang provinces; and structurally stable type in the remaining six provinces. [Conclusion] Net carbon emissions in China's main grain-producing areas continue to expand with significant regional differentiation, and the future growth trend is pronounced. It is essential to establish synergistic pathways for food security and low-carbon development through differentiated spatial management.