[Objective] Vegetation is crucial for biodiversity, soil-water conservation, and human sustenance. Clarifying its future trends and drivers is essential for regional ecological development.[Methods] Using NDVI data (2000–2023) from the Dabie Mountains in western Anhui, we applied TheilSen Median trend analysis, MannKendall test, stability analysis, future trend analysis, and geographical detector to assess NDVI responses to natural and socioeconomic factors. [Results] ①In terms of temporal-spatial dynamics, Annual NDVI averaged 0.73–0.79 (2000–2023), with an upward trend and a northwesthigh, southeastlow spatial pattern. Most areas were highquality vegetation zones. ②Regarding future trends, NDVI is projected to increase overall, but significant decreases occur in parts of the south and north. Changes are generally stable yet spatially heterogeneous, with very low volatility widespread, and lowtomoderate volatility in eastern/southern areas. ③Hurst index results indicate sustained improvement in core forest areas of central western Anhui, while northern, southern, and eastern regions face either reverse continuous degradation or persistent degradation. ④According to the results of the geospatial analysis, NDVI changes result from interactions among multiple drivers, notably between landuse type and other factors. [Conclusion] Although NDVI in the Dabie Mountains shows an overall increase, degradation risks remain in some areas. Future efforts should promote regional collaboration, innovative datasharing, and coordinated vegetation conservation to support ecological construction and regional sustainable development.