干旱绿洲城市生态系统服务与人类福祉耦合协调研究
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1.甘肃农业大学;2.新疆大学

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F127;X171.1

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国家社会科学基金一般项目 (21BJY117)


Research on the Coupling and Coordination between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being in Arid Oasis Cities: A Case Study of Suzhou District
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    摘要:

    摘 要: 以典型干旱区绿洲城市肃州区为研究对象,融合联合国可持续发展目标框架、千年生态系统评估体系与中国人类福祉功能结构,构建适用于干旱半干旱地区的人类福祉多层次评价体系,运用生态系统服务价值核算、耦合协调度模型、随机森林算法及时空地理加权回归模型,考察2003—2023年肃州区生态系统服务与人类福祉的时空演变特征、耦合协调关系及其驱动机制。研究结果显示:(1)考察期内,肃州区生态系统服务价值总体呈现先下降后上升的态势,由2003年的89.62亿元下降至2013年的82.35亿元,再上升至2023年的83.17亿元。其中,调节服务价值占比达60%,构成生态系统服务价值的主体。人类福祉指数则由0.28提升至0.51,其中,以人均GDP与公共服务为代表的发展功能增长最为迅速,年均增幅达2.94%。(2)生态系统服务与人类福祉的耦合协调关系呈现出以拮抗至磨合为主导的演变格局。2003年以中度失调型为主,占比62.5%,至2023年磨合型区域占比上升至58.3%,其空间分布呈现外围南部祁连山沿线为高-高集聚区,中部城区及绿洲农业区则为低-低集聚区。(3)城市化进程与农业开发强度是制约生态系统服务与人类福祉协调发展的主要因素,其占比分别为58.7%和42.3%,而植被覆盖度提升、第三产业比重增加以及城乡收入差距缩小则表现出显著促进作用,且各驱动因素的影响具有明显的时空异质性。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Taking Suzhou District in Jiuquan City, Gansu Province as the research object, this study integrates the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals framework, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment system, and the functional structure of human well-being in China to construct a multi-level evaluation system for human well-being applicable to arid and semi-arid regions. By utilizing ecosystem service value accounting, coupling coordination degree model, random forest algorithm, and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model, the study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, coupling coordination relationship, and driving mechanisms of ecosystem services and human well-being in Suzhou District from 2003 to 2023. The research results show that: Firstly, from 2003 to 2023, the ecosystem service value in Suzhou District generally exhibited a trend of first decreasing and then stabilizing, declining from 8.962 billion yuan in 2003 to 8.235 billion yuan in 2013, and then slightly rebounded to 8.317 billion yuan in 2023. Among them, regulating services such as climate regulation and hydrological regulation accounted for more than 60%, constituting the main body of ecosystem service value; the human well-being index increased from 0.28 to 0.51, with the development function represented by per capita GDP and public services showing the fastest growth, with an average annual increase of 29.4%. Secondly, the coupling coordination relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being exhibits an evolutionary pattern dominated by antagonism to integration. In 2003, moderately imbalanced regions accounted for 62.5%, while by 2023, integrated regions accounted for 58.3%, with over 95% of townships showing an upward trend in coupling coordination degree; spatially, it is characterized by high values in the periphery and low values in the center, with high-high agglomeration areas along the Qilian Mountains in the south and low-low agglomeration areas in the central urban area and oasis agricultural areas. Furthermore, the proportion of towns with lagging ecosystem services increased from 33.3% in 2000 to 66.7% in 2023. Thirdly, the urbanization process and agricultural development intensity are the main factors restricting the coordinated development of the two, with their importance indicators being 58.7% and 42.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, the increase in vegetation coverage, the proportion of the tertiary industry, and the narrowing of urban-rural income gap showed significant promoting effects, with mean coefficients of 0.41, 0.38, and 0.32, respectively. Moreover, the influence of each driving factor exhibits significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. This study provides a scientific reference for the coordinated promotion of ecological protection and people""s livelihood improvement in arid oasis cities.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-10
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-15
  • 录用日期:2026-01-16
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