长江三角洲地区植被净初级生产力时空演变及其驱动因素
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S718.5,Q948

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苏北灌溉总渠堤防加固工程(淮安市淮安区境内工程)科学研究试验项目(KJ20240096); 江宁区句容河综合整治工程科学研究试验项目(JNZC-2023GK0045)


Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of vegetation net primary productivity in Yangtze River delta region
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    [目的]探究2001—2023年长江三角洲(长三角)区域植被净初级生产力(net primary productivity,NPP)的时空变化规律及驱动因素,为该区域制定合理生态保护策略提供科学依据。[方法]基于长时序MODIS NPP数据,采用趋势分析、Hurst指数分析、偏相关分析、残差分析及随机森林回归与SHAP可解释分析方法,分析长三角地区植被NPP时空变化特征及其影响因素。[结果] 2001—2023年长三角地区植被NPP值呈上升趋势,年均增长量为3.39 g/(m2·a)(以C计);其空间分布呈现“南高北低”的特征。其中,浙江省NPP均值显著高于其他省区。栅格尺度显示研究区Theil-Sen平均值为2.71 g/(m2·a),植被NPP变化趋势以升高为主,长江沿岸及河湖滨岸区域植被NPP增加趋势显著。地区植被NPP Hurst指数平均值为0.72,在未来时期长三角地区NPP整体仍会呈现继续增加的变化趋势。气候因子对长三角地区植被NPP变化的贡献大于人类活动,且呈现正向影响。随机森林SHAP驱动因素分析表明,各影响因子中,降水、植被类型、高程对长三角地区植被NPP取值变化的影响较强,呈现正向影响,且各影响因子的作用具有明显的非线性特征。[结论] 2001—2023年,长三角地区植被NPP总体呈稳定增长态势,生态环境因素在NPP变化中发挥了重要的作用。未来应持续改善长三角地区生态环境,实现可持续增汇。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] The spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving factors of vegetation net primary productivity(NPP) in the Yangtze River delta region from 2001 to 2023 were explored in order to provide a scientific basis for formulating rational ecological protection strategies in this region. [Methods] Based on longterrn series MODIS NPP data, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of vegetation NPP in the Yangtze River delta and its influencing factors were analyzed using trend analysis, Hurst index analysis, partial correlation analysis, residual analysis, random forest regression, and SHAP interpretable analysis. [Results] From 2001 to 2023, vegetation NPP in the Yangtze River delta showed an increasing trend, with an average annual increase of 3.39 g/(m2·a)(calculated by carbon). Its spatial distribution was characterized by high values in the south and low values in the north, among which the mean NPP of Zhejiang Province was significantly higher than that of other provinces. At the grid scale, it was found that the average Theil-Sen value of the study area was 2.71 g/(m2·a), with vegetation NPP showing an overall increasing trend. The increase in vegetation NPP was especially pronounced in areas along both banks of the Yangtze River and around rivers and lakes. The average Hurst index of regional vegetation NPP was 0.72, indicating that the overall NPP in the Yangtze River delta would continue to increase in the future. Climatic factors contributed more to vegetation NPP variation than human activities and exerted a positive effect. Furthermore, random forest and SHAP driving factor analysis showed that precipitation, vegetation type, and elevation had relatively strong positive effects on vegetation NPP values in the study area, and that the effects of all influencing factors exhibited obvious nonlinear characteristics. [Conclusion] From 2001 to 2023, vegetation NPP in the Yangtze River delta generally maintained a steady growth trend, with ecological environmental factors playing a crucial role in NPP variation. In the future, continuous efforts should be made in the improvement of ecological environment of the Yangtze River delta to achieve sustainable carbon sink enhancement.

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吴达,邵光成,陈广兵,刘正军,姜恩勉,戚荣婷,刘宗奇.长江三角洲地区植被净初级生产力时空演变及其驱动因素[J].水土保持通报,2026,46(3):435-446,459

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-05
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-24
  • 出版日期: 2026-06-15